Indefinite leave to remain: Nigel Farage must understand devil is in detail if he wants to be prime minister

The Reform UK leader’s press conference on Monday on immigration was more about rhetoric than definite numbers.

He was unable to properly answer questions about exactly how much money his plans would save.

If he continues to ignore facts and figures, the voting public will almost certainly take notice. A similar absence of detail has been historically proven to decide elections and polls.

What are the plans?

On Monday morning, Mr Farage and Reform UK Head of Policy Zia Yusuf held a press conference to announce new plans “to abolish indefinite leave to remain”.

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They would axe the right of migrants to apply for indefinite leave to remain, ban anyone who is not a UK citizen from claiming benefits, and force migrants applying for UK citizenship to renounce other citizenship.

Reform wants to replace indefinite leave to remain with visas which people need to apply for every five years. There would also be tighter restrictions on bringing spouses and children to the UK.

Savings don’t add up

Reform have said that the plans would save £234 billion for the taxpayer.

This number was taken from research carried out by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), which calculated a rough figure for the cost of immigrants who will soon be eligible to apply for the status.

But before Mr Farage had even taken to the stage, the think-tank said it did not stand by the figures and they should not be used.

When asked about it at the press conference, the Reform UK leader claimed the number given was actually “too low” and that he suspects “many, more than 800,000 actually will apply for indefinite leave to remain”. But he then admitted “it's quite tough to get all of the figures”.

They also denied the policy would affect care homes, which are particularly reliant on foreign workers, and were unable to give a number for the salary cap.

EU nationals

Reform had said welfare “will be for UK citizens only, not foreign nationals”.

But Mr Yusuf admitted EU nationals with settled status in the UK - of which there are 4.1 million - would not be banned from claiming benefits.

EU citizens with settled status account for 9.7 per cent of Universal Credit claimants, when non-EU migrants are only 2.7 per cent.

Detail not important

Mr Farage pretty much admitted in his press conference that detail was not a key part of his plans.

He said the “main objective” was “to wake everybody up to the Boris [Johnson] wave”.

Clearly, he wants to focus on ideas and capitalise on anti-immigration rhetoric, instead of whether his plans will actually work.

Could come back to bite him

We have seen in the past that failing to do the sums and double down on detail can can come back to bite popular political campaigns.

The lack of detail on currency hurt Alex Salmond during the independence referendum, while Jeremy Corbyn’s “magic money tree” drove voters away.

Vibes can win over big sections of the public and generate popularity. But which party seems more responsible with money is key to floating voters.

A lack of clear and costed plans could ultimately cost Reform UK the next election. Failing to focus on detail will inevitably push some of the electorate into Labour’s arms.

It will allow Sir Keir Starmer’s party to portray themselves as being more sensible with the public purse, which could be the crucial difference at the next general election.