Nicola Sturgeon could still lead SNP independence campaign, Sir John Curtice claims

Professor Sir John Curtice said it would be “difficult” for Ms Sturgeon to continue as an MSP after 2026, and warned there was a shortage of “charismatic leaders” in the SNP to replace First Minister John Swinney.

In an interview with The Herald on Sunday, Sir John said Ms Sturgeon could be “valuable” to the party’s future independence movement because of her track record as an “effective campaigner”.

He said: “The SNP don’t have any known charismatic leaders at the moment. With [Alex] Salmond and Sturgeon, they were very heavily reliant on that, but if she was to try and come back, it would be very difficult.

“If Swinney wanted to start an SNP campaign to try to move the dial on independence and say to Sturgeon ‘will you do that?’, I can see that being valuable.

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“I can see that being valuable to the SNP because they definitely need to move the dial and Sturgeon is a very effective campaigner.

“If Operation Branchform comes to a conclusion that there isn’t a case to be pursued any further with her, and to what extent she is in the clear, and particularly more so if the Crown Office decides not to pursue the case against her husband [Peter Murrell], then Sturgeon could be the SNP’s campaigner-in-chief for advocating the case for independence.

“But it needs to be something really clear and demarcated like that.”

Ms Sturgeon was arrested as part of Operation Branchform, the police investigation into SNP finances, last year, but was later released without charge, pending further enquiries.

Earlier this year Mr Murrell, her husband and the party’s former chief executive, was charged with embezzlement. Ms Sturgeon said earlier this month she knows nothing more about the investigation since she herself was arrested.

Sir John said he believed Ms Sturgeon would not stand for re-election to Glasgow Southside in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections. This comes after her successor Humza Yousaf announced last week that he will not seek re-election in 2026.

Sir John said Mr Yousaf had accepted his “political career is over”, and said “Sturgeon also probably will”.

He said: “If you’re going to have Nicola Sturgeon, it’s got to be a front room role. If she is staying on - what is the purpose and how can the party use her?

“There is an obvious question of having resigned and decided to step back in February 2023. Why does she want to carry on?”

Ms Sturgeon has said “no decisions” have been made on her political future, but she has submitted the necessary paperwork to be vetted as a candidate for the 2026 Holyrood election.

In his interview, Sir John also said Mr Swinney needed to find his successor as leader of the SNP, as nobody has been able to recreate the public image of Ms Sturgeon and her predecessor Mr Salmond.

Sir John said: “There is a general point which is that the SNP, particularly in 1999, were incredibly lucky in having such a number of really high-profile people who cut their political teeth in the 1990s.

“It was Salmond, it was Sturgeon, it was Swinney. It was [Kenny] MacAskill, it was Mike Russell - really seriously big characters.

“Nobody else as yet has really managed to do that, apart from [SNP Westminster leader] Stephen Flynn, who has kind of got himself into a wee bit of bother over the way in which he tried to get into Holyrood.

“He’s the one person who has demonstrated that kind of external outreach ability that the SNP probably do need at some point. Swinney is only able to steady the ship and life is now being made much easier by the fact that [Scottish Labour leader Anas] Sarwar is getting all the kickback against the UK government.

“But even so, managing to hold onto a pro-nationalist majority or pro-independence majority in 2026, which is kind of an essential pre-requisite for being able to hold any referendum, it still looks at the moment a potential tall order.”