It’s fair to say that Sir Keir Starmer hasn’t had a great 2026 so far, with questions being raised about his leadership less than two years after winning a historic general election landslide.
There was Labour’s third place in the Gorton and Denton byelection behind the victorious Green Party and Reform, which came just a couple of weeks after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for the leader to step down.
The latter half of 2025 wasn’t much better, with a succession of problematic stories for the Premier, along with cabinet scandals and embarrassing u-turns - including on an income tax rise at the last budget.
And the worst was yet to come - courtesy of the scandal linking former British Ambassador to the United States Lord Mandelson to financier sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson has since been arrested by police.
The latest revelation is that Mandelson failed his security vetting clearance but that the Foreign Office overruled the decision to allow him to take up the role.
Sir Keir insists that he was never informed of the decision, but some political rivals have accused him of misleading parliament, calling for him to step down.
Now this week will see Scottish and Welsh voters head to the polls to decide who will lead their devolved governments, while in England more that 5,000 seats on 136 councils will be contested, along with six mayoral vacancies.
If Labour do as badly as is widely expected then there will inevitably be further speculation over who will succeed Sir Keir when he eventually stands aside - or is forcibly removed - from office.
Here are the 10 most likely candidates - according to the bookies.
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1. Andy Burnham - 5/2
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham is a hugely popular figure with both Labour MPs and voters and has consistantly refused to rule out standing in any leadership challenge. The one problem is that he's not an MP so would need to contest and win a byelection first - something that he was recently blocked from doing by the party's NEC. However word has it that he has some allies who would step down as MPs in order to let him stand. That speculation has seen his odds tumble in the last few days to become 5/2 joint favourite. | AFP via Getty Images
2. Angela Rayner - 5/2
Angela Rayner, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, lost her place in cabinet after she breached the ministerial code by underpaying stamp duty on a property in Hove. The bookies don't think her political career is finished yet though - she's the joint 5/2 favourite to take over as Labour leader when the time comes. | Getty Images
3. Wes Streeting - 9/2
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has previously insisted he is "not challenging the Prime Minister", despite a briefing war where some close to Keir Starmer said he was after the top job. He's failed to rule out any future challenge though, and seems to harbour ambitions of leading the country. He's the 9/2 third favourite to take over from Sir Keir and has seen his odds drift slightly over the last couple of weeks. | Getty Images
4. Ed Miliband - 8/1
Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband unexpectedly lost the 2015 General Election to David Cameron by 10 seats, effectively beginning the process of Brexit. It would be one of the more remarkable political comebacks if he was able to give becoming PM another shot. The bookies reckon he has an 8/1 chance of being next Labour leader - drifting out from 7/1 just a week ago. | Getty Images