Mega-poll finds Labour on course for enormous election victory and SNP reduced to just 17 MPs

The MRP poll by YouGov has found that Sir Keir Starmer is set to secure a history majority of 194 seats with Labour projected to return 422 MPs to the Commons - while the Conservatives are on course for their tally to be reduced to just 140 MPs.

The SNP are set to slip back behind the Liberal Democrats into fourth place, with the study forecasting John Swinney’s party will only pick up 17 seats at the election, behind the Lib Dems on 48. The result would be the worst Westminster election for the SNP since 2010 – but many of the crucial contests, particularly with Labour, remain on a knife-edge.

The poll came after Nigel Farage dealt a further blow to the Tories after he declared he will contest the Clacton seat in Essex and take over the leadership of Reform UK - aiming to lead a “political revolt” against the Tories and Labour.

The MRP study reveals that Sir Keir will surpass the victory Tony Blair secured in his 1997 landslide - more than doubling Labour’s tally of MPs at the 2019 general election. Labour is forecast to clock up more gains than at any election since 1945, potentially leaving the Tories with their lowest number of MPs since 2001.

The damning polling reveals that several Tory Cabinet ministers are at risk of losing their seats - with Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, Alex Chalk, Michelle Donelan and Gillian Keegan all at risk of defeat.

The study has Labour winning 34 seats in Scotland, the SNP dropping to 17, the Conservatives would lose one seat in the North East to total five MPs and the Lib Dems would have just one MP.

The forecast gives Labour the best total in Scotland since the 2005 and 2010 general elections when the party won 41 seats.

Scottish Labour deputy leader, Jackie Baillie, said: "Today's MRP polls show clearly that Scots are desperate for change from the broken status quo.

"After 14 years of a rotten Tory government in Westminster, this general election is an opportunity for change that Scots cannot afford to miss.

"And the SNP closing ranks to protect Michael Matheson shows how Scots are being let down by two bad governments more interested in serving their Party rather than delivering for our country.

"Scottish Labour doesn't want to just send a message to Westminster – we want to send a government that will boost pay, cut bills, renew public services, and revive our economy.

"But we are not taking anything for granted – we know that change can only happen if Scots vote for it, and we will be making the case on the doorstep up and down the country until July 4."

YouGov has stressed that Scotland is “notably more marginal than England” - with an average of an eight point lead for the winning party, compared to 23 points south of the Border.

It adds that 20 seats in Scotland “are toss ups”, where “in all 20 the SNP are one of the two parties vying for the top spot”, with Labour the other party in 17 cases.

Pollsters said the study is “the largest Scottish sample that YouGov have used for an MRP since the 2019 general election”, which gives “much more detail in terms of what is happening seat to seat”.

The poll has forecast that the SNP will lose a host of seats across the central belt to Labour including all of Glasgow. But the poll also predicts that the SNP will edge out the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West - a stronghold for the Lib Dems.

The poll predicts the SNP will hold on to its seats in the North East, keep hold on the North East Fife battleground with the Lib Dems, but be left with just four seats in the central belt - Edinburgh West, Edinburgh South West, Edinburgh East and Musselburgh and Mid Dumbartonshire.

The SNP are also projected to take Tory minister Andrew Bowie’s seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - but the study admits many Scottish seats, including the central belt gains for Labour remain a “toss up” between two parties.

YouGov's polling projection is based on interviews with 53,334 people in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland, with the data collected between 24 May and 1 June.

The poll predicts that Labour are on course for the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s unprecedented figure of 201 in 1924.

A separate MRP analysis, published by More in Common and the News Agents podcast earlier on Monday, had suggested that Labour was on course for its biggest majority in 23 years.

That analysis is based on voting intention data collected between April 9 and May 29 from 15,089 adults in Great Britain.

That poll predicts Labour would win 382 seats, compared to the Conservatives’ tally of 180 – handing Sir Keri a majority of 114 MPs. Under that study, the SNP would remain the third biggest party but lose 13 seats to total 35 and the LibDems would have 30 seats in the Commons.