Exclusive:Two-thirds of Scots have 'lost trust' in Labour to kickstart the economy, tracker shows
Labour has been dealt a blow after a new study found Scots have no faith in the UK government fixing the economy in the next year.
Almost two thirds of Scots expect the economy to further deteriorate under Labour in the next year amid accusations the public has “lost trust” in Sir Keir Starmer’s government.
The first quarterly publication in 2025 of an independent tracker paints a gloomy economic picture under the Labour UK government, which has placed economic growth at the centre of its policy agenda.
The quarterly Understanding Scotland economy tracker from the David Hume Institute and the Diffley Partnership has revealed 62 per cent of Scots believe that economic conditions have worsened over the past year.
Worryingly for Labour, the study also found almost two thirds of Scots (64 per cent) expect a further deterioration of the economy in the next 12 months.
The blow for Labour comes as Sir Keir delivers his keynote speech at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow today.
The independent tracker shows the proportion of Scots predicting worsening conditions has declined slightly - by one to two percentage points - but this has not led to increased optimism. Fewer than one in ten expect economic improvement.
The survey shows healthcare and the cost of living remain the biggest concerns for Scots, but the economy is emerging as a key issue.
The fieldwork for the tracker was carried out between February 4-10, with 2,194 responses collected from people aged 16 or over across Scotland. Results were weighted to the Scottish population, based on 2021 estimates, by age and sex.
Both Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and SNP First Minister John Swinney have put the NHS on the line ahead of the 2026 Holyrood election, with both parties making big pledges to improve the health service.
The study highlights persistent financial pressures, widespread spending cuts and limited optimism about economic recovery in the year ahead.
Healthcare remains the top priority, with concern rising by four percentage points to 50 per cent, while the cost of living remains a pressing issue at 34 per cent. At the same time, concern about the economy is resurging, increasing by four percentage points to 20 per cent, up from a low of 16 per cent in November.
With the rise in support for Reform UK and both the Scottish Conservatives and Labour pandering to Nigel Farage’s hard-line focus on immigration, the issue being a priority has steadily risen since the summer of 2023 as a top issue for Scots.
The study found the economic outlook remains bleak.
With financial pressures persisting, cost-cutting behaviours are now the norm. More than half of Scots are now cutting back on leisure activities, 52 per cent are reducing non-essential spending and 45 per cent are saving less than usual.
Public attitudes towards Scotland’s overall direction remains largely negative, with 53 per cent believing the country is on the wrong track. However, this figure has fallen by three percentage points since the last study, while optimism is slowly increasing.
The proportion of Scots who believe the country is heading in the right direction has risen by four percentage points to 24 per cent, narrowly overtaking those who remain uncertain.
Susan Murray, director of the David Hume Institute, said: “This survey shows the stark reality of life for many people in Scotland.
“With so much talk about increasing growth at Westminster and Holyrood, many of the infrastructure investments that are hoped will drive growth are way down the line.
"The physical and mental health of Scots is being affected today, which will cost society more in the long run, through long-term health conditions and lower productivity. The promise of jam tomorrow is not easing financial stress today.”
The Scottish Conservatives have claimed the "damning report” showed the “depressing outlook Scots see for the economy”.
Scottish Tory shadow finance secretary Craig Hoy said: “They have lost trust in Labour after their Budget of broken promises, which compounded the SNP’s high-tax regime.
“That double whammy means Scots are being hammered by two left-wing governments when they are crying out to keep more of their hard-earned money and stop paying more, but getting less in return.
“Only the Scottish Conservatives are offering those common-sense proposals to help grow our economy and give hard-pressed Scots a much needed boost.”
Scott Edgar, senior research manager at the Diffley Partnership said: “Healthcare, the cost of living, and economic uncertainty dominate public concern, with Scots clearly feeling the strain on public services and their pockets.
“Cost-cutting behaviours are widespread and fewer people are able to save for a rainy day or their long-term goals. The resurgence of economic worries we are tracking signals deeper anxieties about the year ahead and the lead up to Holyrood 2026 elections.
“However, with a small, but notable rise in optimism in the country’s direction, there are early signs that confidence in Scotland’s future may be starting to shift.”
Scottish Labour economy spokesperson Daniel Johnson said: “The Labour government is working hard to clean up the economic carnage the Tories left behind and kickstart economic growth across the country.
“The SNP cannot wash its hands of its responsibility to boost growth and create opportunities for Scots.”
He added: "This SNP Government has failed to use the economic levers it has to unlock Scotland's huge potential - and that is why we need a new direction.
“A Scottish Labour government would use every power at our disposal to strengthen Scotland’s economy and deliver a new direction – from reforming planning to overhauling skills to prioritising economic development.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday her “number one mission” was getting “more pounds in pockets” after the Office for National Statistics confirmed the rise in inflation.
“That’s why we’re going further and faster to deliver economic growth,” she said.
An HM Treasury spokesperson said: “Getting growth back into the UK economy after over a decade of stagnation was never going to be easy. That’s why we are taking on the blockers to get Britain building again, including 1.5 million new homes and a third runway at Heathrow.
“Many business leaders are confident that the Chancellor's growth plans will help drive business investment and both the IMF [International Monetary Fund] and OECD forecast that the UK will have the fastest economic growth in the European G7 countries.”
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