'Not plain sailing': Why John Swinney is suddenly 'very optimistic' about SNP's election chances

The First Minister made the comments after meeting Sir Keir Starmer in Edinburgh on Friday.

The two met privately ahead of the inaugural Council of the Nations and Regions – a body designed to reset relationships between the UK government, devolved administrations and metro mayors.

Labour won a historic landslide at the general election in July, returning 37 MPs in Scotland. Support for the SNP, meanwhile, plummeted.

But Sir Keir has since endured a rocky start to his time in office, with rows over gifts and donations as well as his decision to scale back the winter fuel payment.

Speaking after the summit on Friday, Mr Swinney was asked whether the first 100 days of a UK Labour government had given him optimism about his party’s chances in 2026.

"I'm very optimistic that we can perform well in 2026,” he said. “I'm very, very optimistic about that, and we're setting about doing that as we speak."

He added: "Let's just say I don't think the first 100 days have been plain sailing, let me just put it that way."

Mr Swinney’s comments came as a YouGov survey revealed almost three in five people disapprove of the UK government as it marks its 100th day in office.

The survey found 59 per cent of people disapproved of its record so far, while just 18 per cent approved. However, some 37 per cent said they did not have high hopes for the government, but would give it the benefit of the doubt, while another 17 per cent said they were sure the government would do a good job.

A total of 2,121 people aged 18 and over were surveyed across the UK from October 4-6.

Elsewhere, Mr Swinney backed calls by Scottish city leaders to be included in future meetings of the Council of the Nations and Regions, following anger over their exclusion while English metro mayors were invited.

"I think it would be appropriate for Scottish cities to be represented at the meeting,” he told journalists. “I put that point to the Prime Minister, but it's up to the Prime Minister to decide the cast list for his meeting."

He was also asked about his understanding of Sue Gray's new position. She recently left her role as No 10 chief of staff amid bitter internal battles and was appointed Sir Keir’s envoy for the UK's nations and regions. However, she is said to be taking a short break and was not at Friday’s meeting.

In comments that will further fuel speculation about Ms Gray’s future, Mr Swinney said: "I don't know what the nature of that role is and it's not been explained to me. What I expect is that I will have a direct relationship with the Prime Minister, and that's what I will pursue."

He added: "What has been promised to me by the Prime Minister is a direct relationship between me and him, and that has been fulfilled. And the Prime Minister made it clear to me again today that if there are issues about which I am concerned, I am to approach him directly. I have been doing so, and I will do so."

Mr Swinney said he expected the meetings to take place every six months.

“This has been a welcome opportunity to raise significant issues that affect the prospects of Scotland, and central to that is the outcome of the Budget, where we need to see investment in our public services and in our infrastructure to stimulate the growth that all of us want to see delivered within the economy,” he said.

“It’s very much at the heart of the Prime Minister’s agenda, it’s very much at the heart of my agenda, and I want to make sure that we’ve got the right investment in our economy, which is an essential product of the budget at the end of October.”

The SNP at Westminster has called for a £16 billion increase to the NHS budget, which would provide £1.6bn to Scotland through the Barnett formula.

The First Minister also pushed Sir Keir on a carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) facility in Aberdeenshire, which critics say has been overlooked by the UK government for funding.

The Acorn project was given reserve status under the previous UK government and missed out on a share of £22bn, which went to two similar facilities in the north of England.

“I’ve set out to the Prime Minister the critical nature of investment in CCUS within Scotland, and we’ve got a superb project that merits investment,” Mr Swinney said.

He said the issues he raised were “taken seriously” by Sir Keir.

The Prime Minister said after the meeting: “Today was very much a statement of intent with the Council of the Nations and Regions and the First Minister of Scotland and I have been in meetings for the best part of three hours today.

“I said I wanted to reset the relationship, I wanted to collaborate so that my government could deliver for Scotland. That’s why I’ve had a very good discussion today about how we can work more closely together, about carbon capture, about energy, about strategies for growth, and it’s been a very constructive exercise.

“I’m really pleased that we’re able to take these things forward.”

Sir Keir said he was “committed” to investing in Scotland, including through the state-owned Great British Energy, which will be headquartered in Aberdeen.

“That’s what matters to me more than anything else,” he said. “Whether people living in Scotland can see a better future, a brighter future. A future where there’s investment coming into where they live and where they work so their living standards can go up and they can be secure in the jobs that they have, the jobs for their children and their children’s children.

“That’s why I’m so pleased about the investment decisions that have been announced.”

Asked about Ms Gray, the Prime Minister instead spoke of the meetings, saying: “For everybody listening and watching this, who’s concerned to know, is there going to be investment in my region? Are there going to be jobs where I live? The answer is, today, we’ve got a long way down the road of collaborating to that end.”