John Swinney should hold a Holyrood probe - a Westminster one will be worse

A Holyrood investigation would have been heavily weighted in the SNP’s favour.

The bulk of the MSPs on the committee - probably including the chair - would have been Nationalists. On top of this, the Greens would not have been overly hostile.

There would have been plenty of people to defend the party and ask easy questions for witnesses such as Mr Swinney and Nicola Sturgeon.

Because the parties choose who sits on committees, he could have even handpicked uber-loyal MSPs who would do anything to curry favour.

Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and Lib Dems would have had diminished influence as they would have been in the minority. They likely would have only had one member each on the committee, making it harder to tee each other up for questions.

By trying to avoid this limited scrutiny - much of which was within his control - the First Minister has shot himself in the foot.

Read more: Vast majority of Westminster committee members back SNP embezzlement probe

There is now a realistic prospect that there will be a Westminster inquiry - as the majority of MPs on the Scottish Affairs Committee supports one.

The First Minister was brazen enough to reject a Holyrood probe because he clearly thought that Westminster could not hold an investigation.

It is hard to believe he was so naïve.

Mr Murrell embezzled SNP funds, and a decent share of the party’s cash comes from the UK taxpayer through short money. This may give the committee the hook it needs.

Also the FM surely knew that Scots Labour, Lib Dem and Tory MPs would do everything within their power to gain a chance to ask questions and publicly embarrass the SNP.

Now, instead of an SNP-heavy inquiry, there could be an almost entirely unionist probe.

Six of the 11 MPs on the Scottish Affairs Committee - including chair Patricia Ferguson - are Labour. Two are Tory and two are Lib Dem.

All of these MPs will relish the chance to air the SNP’s dirty laundry in public. They will not hold back.

The SNP only have a sole place on the committee and it was gifted to them by Labour. It is held by the Nationalists’ new Westminster leader Dave Doogan.

In Mr Doogan they have a fierce debater who can stand up for himself.

But he is no Sturgeonite. He is a strong ally of his predecessor Stephen Flynn, who defied Ms Sturgeon by ousting Ian Blackford as the party’s Westminster leader.

I am sure Mr Doogan would strongly defend his own party at the committee. He does not take attacks lying down.

But it does no harm for Mr Flynn’s ambitions for Ms Sturgeon’s leadership of the SNP to be publicly ripped apart.

After all, his likely rivals to succeed Mr Swinney are two Sturgeonites: Jenny Gilruth and Mairi McAllan.

Read more: Tory Shadow Scots Secretary backs calls for Westminster SNP embezzlement probe

The First Minister has been very forthright in saying that Holyrood would not hold an inquiry.

He has pretty much backed himself into a corner with this.

But he could show humility and U-turn, even though it is only because of the pressure caused by a small group of unionist MPs.

It is still his best option to announce a Holyrood inquiry.