Scottish independence is a distant prospect - but here's why it will dominate SNP conference
John Swinney’s focus on independence is an attempt to ‘galvanise’ his voter base - but it could backfire.
In what seems like a throwback to years ago, the SNP’s annual conference in Aberdeen this weekend will be dominated by a debate on how Scotland can achieve independence.
It seems somewhat strange given there is a Holyrood election months away and John Swinney has mostly stayed away from the topic since becoming first minister.
The SNP leader has preferred to point out the failings of the UK government, instead of citing independence as a real possibility.
Changing focus to independence is not without risk, as it could cause splits in the party and alienate some voters.
An SNP source said: “The independence stuff will be the main thing at conference. Things have been set out, you can say what you like about the process and what’s planned.
“But at least it gives the party something to ... I think it’s quite important to say what we’d do in terms of independence.”
What is being debated?
On Saturday, SNP members will debate Mr Swinney’s motion that an SNP majority at next year’s Holyrood election “is the only uncontested route to delivering a new referendum”.
But activists have put forward an amendment that says May’s election should be a “de-facto independence referendum”.
This would mean if the SNP and other pro-independence parties gain a majority, it should be “considered a mandate to negotiate independence”.
This was briefly the policy under former first minister Nicola Sturgeon - although the plan was to use Westminster elections rather than Holyrood - but was shelved after she stood down.
Why the debate?
The timing of it is quite odd because it is only seven months until the Scottish Parliament election and independence is not high on the list of priorities for the Scottish public.
It is even more surprising given that pro-union parties took nearly two-thirds of the vote last year.
But part of the reasoning behind an independence strategy is an attempt to get more activists out campaigning ahead of the election, especially those who have complained about a lack of a strategy to becoming an independent country
An SNP source said: “I think if you can sort out a process, and if it it gets the stamp of the party, that’s quite important because it allows you to have done that by the time the election comes around.
“Obviously, with an election coming up, you need to galvanise your support.”
Labour happy for the SNP to focus on independence
Other parties will be licking their lips about this independence debate - particularly Labour. When a second referendum was a big issue, Labour struggled for relevance.
But now it can say the reason our public services are failing is because the SNP has been focussing on the constitution instead of the the interests of the public.
A Labour source said: “The SNP is having a different conversation from everyone else. The public wants an election about health service, and their weans’ schools, while the SNP is stuck in a 2014 time warp.”
What if it fails to pass?
Although it is pretty likely that members will fall into line and back Mr Swinney’s plans, the debate comes with a risk. It would be a real problem if his proposal is rejected and would undermine his leadership.
It would suggest the party is fractured and the SNP’s position is unclear.
A lack of clarity never goes down well with voters.
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