Holyrood elections 2026 - All you need to know about Dumbarton
Cost of living, transport and sewage are the biggest issues facing Scotland’s longest, most diverse constituency - but will Jackie Baillie hang on to Dumbarton for Labour?
It has potential to be the biggest upset of the election and a devastating blow to Scottish Labour.
All eyes are on the Dumbarton constituency where grande dame Jackie Baillie - who has held the seat since the founding of the Scottish parliament in 1999 - just might be defenestrated by one of the campaign’s youngest would-be MSPs.
Split across two local authorities, Argyll and Bute and West Dunbartonshire, Dumbarton is a diverse mix of rural, coastal and urban.
It stretches from Bowling and Milton at the southern tip and it goes right up to the Rest and Be Thankful at its northernmost point.
It spreads down to Rhu, Helensburgh, Dumbarton, and the Vale of Leven.
“I remember when I was first elected,” Ms Baillie says during a rare chance to sit down.
“The National Farmers Union took pity on me as a city girl and had me along to some of their farms to understand their way of life and the issues that matter to them.”
At the 2021 election, Labour won the seat but the party’s vote share was a slim 3.8 per cent.
On the doors now, people talk about NHS waiting lists and the cost of living.
The area is growing because HM Naval Base Clyde - or Faslane - which is the biggest single-site employer in the west of Scotland, is also growing.
SNP candidate Sophie Traynor has been a local councillor since 2022 but describes campaigning across the area as a whole as a “wee bit of a learning curve”.
She says housing is a major issue, but that may be influenced by the fact she is her council group’s housing spokeswoman.
Across the constituency concerns vary from the high number of second homes and holiday lets to the dearth of a mix of tenancies for larger families.
Public transport - particularly the bus network - is a main talking point. Ms Traynor is pleased her party is offering a £2 cap on fares in its manifesto “which is great, but not if there’s not a reliable service.”
The Conservative candidate Gary Mulvaney agreed people across Dumbarton are “extremely worried” about the cost-of-living crisis.
"They are desperate to see their bills come down and are sick and tired of paying more but getting less,” he said.
"Voters are also worried about the state of our NHS and other public services which have had major cuts imposed on them.”
Liberal Democrat candidate Elaine Ford agrees the NHS, transport and cost of living are the main issues for people in the constituency but adds her concerns about sewage.
She said: “One of the greatest scandals of the SNP’s era in government is sewage dumping, and it’s affected this constituency directly.
“Last year, a Scottish Liberal Democrat freedom of information request to the environmental regulator SEPA revealed that the Helensburgh Sewage Treatment Works had been found to be non-compliant with the conditions of its licence, with 1,722 sewage dumps at just that single site. “By contrast, the site with the most dumps in England was Salcombe Regis in Devon, with 366 spills.”
Candidates agree voters are “scunnered”.
Mr Mulvaney added: “Many people are understandably scunnered and feel let down by politicians, but I have been working hard to put across a positive Scottish Conservative message about bringing down bills.”
A common theme is people saying they won’t vote at all.
“For a politician it is really disappointing, and I'm trying to encourage them to go out,” Ms Baillie added.
“But there is that that feeling of we just don't feel anybody speaks for us.”
She addd: “They've fallen out of love with politics.”
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon makes her final address to the Holyrood chamber - did she keep her Promise?
Ms Baillie has been out on the doorsteps since January, describing her “old school” desire to see people face-to-face. Most people, after 27 years, know her face.
Like Ms Baillie, Ms Traynor has been struck by the higher than usual number of constituents saying they will not vote at all or being shy about who they might vote for.
The traditional Labour vote, she claims, is a little less secure.
People on the doorsteps have been friendly - some overly so. “I keep getting hooked into houses,” Ms Traynor said.
Ms Baillie said she has hardly met any Reform voters, although admits some people may just be shying in saying it.
“We haven't experienced the level of migration that has been experienced down south,” she added.
“If somebody has a view about it, it is a view that they've probably got from social media.”
Reform UK’s candidate did not respond to requests for interview.
Ms Baillie is not worried about her constituents’ views on Sir Keir Starmer, saying they understand this is an election about Holyrood, not Westminster.
While up against one of Scotland’s most experienced political figures, Ms Traynor sees her youth - she turns 30 this year - as a virtue.
“My first vote, was the Scottish referendum. Everybody was very engaged in politics, the whole world was a bit political around about you,” she said, and she caught the bug.
Her mother was disabled and didn’t work. She died when Ms Traynor was 16. Her father died when she was 25.
These experiences shaped her politics and led to her desire to want to help people in similar circumstances.
On the prospect of unseating Jackie Baillie, she is - to appearances at least - sanguine. “She is Jackie, and I am Sophie.
“She has got such a high profile but she is just another candidate and so am I. If I thought about it too much I’d spiral.”
What does Ms Baillie feel are her odds of holding the seat for yet another term? “There is no poll quite like polling day itself,” she says.
Who are Dumbarton’s candidates?
Labour - Jackie Baillie
Liberal Democrat - Elaine Ford
Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition - Lynda McEwan
Independent - Andrew Muir
Conservative - Gary Mulvaney
Reform UK - David Smith
Scottish National Party - Sophie Traynor
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.