SNP suffering 'bleeding of support' as poll finds John Swinney to fall short of Holyrood majority

The study by Survation on behalf of Ballot Box Scotland predicts that the SNP will win 57 seats at next month’s election, five fewer than the previous Survation poll predicted a month ago.

Mr Swinney’s party’s vote share on the regional list has dropped by three percentage points from March 16-23 to April 14-21.

The study puts Reform in second place with 21 MSPs set to be elected to Holyrood, with Labour on 18, which would be their worst performance in the history of devolution.

READ MORE: Sarwar accuses SNP and Reform of 'co-ordinated plan' to smear him and poses 'moral question' for Swinney

According to the polling, the Conservatives would pick up just 13 seats, 11 Green MSPs would enter the Scottish Parliament and nine Lib Dems.

The poll shows that even though support for the SNP has declined , Labour’s vote share has not increased, with Anas Sarwar’s party still lagging far behind the SNP as the biggest party, and trailing Reform by three projected seats.

The poll findings would open the door for a marginal pro-independence majority between the SNP and Greens, with any pro-union alternative, including Reform MSPs, falling narrowly short.

The Survation research also found 46 per cent in support of independence, compared with 43 per cent who would vote No in a second referendum, with support on 51 per cent excluding don’t knows.

READ MORE: John Swinney: I want to collaborate with Sinn Féin and Plaid Cymru to break up UK

The poll also asked voters which party they would least like to be part of the next Scottish government with 34 per cent of those asked identifying Reform as their least favoured option, compared to 17 per cent saying the SNP and 14 per cent picking Labour.

Opposition to Reform was strongest amongst those voting Green at 78 per cent, Labour at 57 per cent and SNP at 52 per cent on the regional list. Relatively few Labour voters identified the SNP or Greens as their least favoured party to form the next government at 16 per cent and 7 per cent respectively.

The study found that SNP voters were comparably hostile to Labour, with only 19 wanting them to be part of the next government, but were also the group most opposed to Conservative participation at 18 per cent.

Ballot Box Scotland ’s Allan Faulds said: “This is a surprisingly poor poll for the SNP.

“With the Greens down 7 per cent on the constituency vote compared to the last poll due to their limited slate of constituency candidates, the SNP would have been expecting a boost of three to five points.

“Instead, a flat constituency vote and reduction in their list share may indicate a bleeding of support right at the point where they can least afford it , as postal votes were beginning to land on the doormats.

“This would nonetheless still potentially elect a small pro-Independence majority of 68 MSPs.”

He added: “However, even were the SNP and Greens combined to fall short, the prospects of a pro-Union alternative would hinge on Reform UK, a much-discussed prospect in recent weeks.

“Reform face the fiercest opposition to participation in government with 34 per cent of all voters describing them as their least preferred option , including a clear majority of Labour voters.”

Survation polled 1,008 people aged 16+ in Scotland between April 14 and April 21.