Holyrood election 2026: Election eve poll projects SNP to fall short on a majority
The poll predicts Reform UK will come second, a senior SNP government minister in peril, and the Scottish Conservative leader failing to win a seat.
Polling on the eve of the 2026 Holyrood election projects the SNP is on course to win - but will fall short of the majority they crave.
The YouGov poll suggests the nationalists will win 62 seats, three short of an outright majority, due to a late surge in tactical voting.
Last month, MRP polling by YouGov predicted there was an 89 per cent chance of the SNP passing the 65-seat threshold needed for a majority. However, that has now fallen to just 11 per cent, with four constituencies previously expected to be won by the SNP now falling to unionist parties.
Today’s poll also suggests Reform UK will come second with 19 seats, followed by Scottish Labour on 17, the Scottish Greens on 16 and the Scottish Lib Dems on eight. It would leave the Scottish Conservatives as the smallest party on just seven.
In the constituencies, it suggests the Scottish Greens would win Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, and Edinburgh Central, which would oust senior SNP government minister Angus Robertson from office.
The poll also predicts the Lib Dems will win Orkney, Shetland, Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, Fife North East, Edinburgh Northern, Edinburgh North Western, and Strathkelvin and Bearsden.
The Conservatives would pick up Eastwood and Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, leaving Scottish Labour on just one constituency with Dumbarton.
In the regions, it suggests there will be two Greens, three Reform and two Labour MSPs in West Scotland (meaning Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay would be out of a seat); two Greens, two Reform and three Labour MSPs in Glasgow; two Greens, three Reform and two Labour in Central Scotland and Lothians West; one Green, three Reform, one Lib Dem, one Labour and one Conservative MSP in the North East; two Greens, two Reform, two Labour and one Conservative MSP in Mid Scotland and Fife; two Greens, two Reform, one SNP, one Labour and one Conservative MSP in the Highlands and Islands; and two Greens, one Reform, three Labour and one Conservative MSP in Edinburgh and Lothians East.
Patrick English, head of elections at YouGov, said: “The SNP have clearly been pegged back between our two models owing part to a slight decline in their own vote share, but more importantly, a drive upwards from the Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats in some constituency seats where they are the best placed unionist challenger.
“Each are now, we believe, winning at least one constituency contest each.
“The SNP’s projected majority in our April model was built on the back of winning 66 out of Scotland’s 72 available constituencies. Today, that figure has dropped to 61.
“While this will be disappointing news for John Swinney and his party, it has not seriously damaged his prospects of returning to Bute House as First Minister. The SNP, plus Green seat totals, are more than enough to govern Scotland in 99 per cent of model simulations.
“As well, there remains a notable chance however, according to our model that the SNP flip those constituencies back into their column, and win an outright majority.”
Polls open at 7am on Thursday 7 May, with counting beginning at 9am on Friday morning. The results are expected early Friday evening.
YouGov polled 6,543 people between April 25 and May 5.
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