Half of Scotland's constituencies now considered marginal, according to major new poll
The new poll also means the unionist parties could band together to lock the SNP out of power after May 7.
More than half of Scotland’s constituencies are now considered marginal, according to a new poll, as Reform UK and the Greens are set to pick up their first constituency wins on May 7.
The new MRP poll by More in Common suggests the SNP will continue to be the largest party in Scotland after next month’s Holyrood election, but would fall down to just 56 seats.
Even with the support of the Scottish Greens, it would mean the pro-independence parties would fall short of the 65-seat majority they need to secure power, leaving the door open for the unionist parties to band together and lock the nationalists out of government.
The poll suggests Reform UK would finish in second place on 22 seats, ahead of Scottish Labour on 17.
Should this play out at the ballot box, it would see Reform winning at least two MSPs in every single region in Scotland, and up to four in West Scotland, where Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay is hoping to win a seat.
It also suggests Reform UK would win Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast off of the SNP. Both of these seats were amongst the smallest majorities of any MSP at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.
The poll then suggests the Scottish Lib Dems would finish in fourth place on 14 seats, including eight constituency wins. This includes the two most northerly seats on the mainland (Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch), which were won by two SNP government ministers in 2021.
It suggests the Scottish Conservatives would fall down to just 12 seats, followed by the Scottish Greens on eight. The poll predicts the Greens will win their first two constituencies in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, and Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.
This new poll found 39 of the 73 constituency seats are now considered marginal, as the victory looks set to be decided by less than five percentage points.
Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world.
“Although they look set to maintain power in Holyrood it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.
“The SNP benefit however from a further fragmentation of the unionist vote with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party and official opposition as Farage finally breaks through north of the border.
“That said, the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty that six-party politics creates.
“Close to half of the constituency seats are estimated to be decided on a margin of less than five points, meaning that there really is all to play for in the closing weeks of this campaign.”
The results of the poll mean John Swinney could fail to win the vote to be elected First Minister after the May 7 election. The unionist parties could band together behind one unionist candidate to lock the SNP out of power.
This comes after Reform UK’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord claimed that Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar had made this suggestion to him.
Dame Jackie Baillie, deputy leader of Scottish Labour, said: “After 20 years of SNP government, Scotland needs change and May 7 is our chance to deliver it.
“Our NHS is stuck in constant crisis, standards are slipping in our schools, and crime is on the rise.
“We can’t risk more of the same SNP failure. Scottish Labour is the only party that can replace them in government and Anas Sarwar is the only person who can replace John Swinney as First Minister.”
Wendy Chamberlain MP, the Scottish Lib Dems’ campaign chairwoman, said: “This poll shows that momentum is behind the Scottish Lib Dems.
“We have run a relentlessly positive campaign focused on access to healthcare and tackling the cost-of-living and that is paying off.”
Gillian Mackay, co-leader of the Scottish Greens, said: “It’s increasingly clear that Greens are going to be in a unique position to deliver progressive policies that lower our bills and protect our environment after this election.
“We showed what was possible over the last five years as we delivered free bus travel for young people, ended peak rail fares, and provided free school meals for thousands of children across Scotland.”
A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: “This poll makes it clear that a vote for Reform will only help the SNP remain in power for another five years.
“John Swinney is desperate to talk up Reform because they get him closer to the majority he craves and will use to demand another divisive independence referendum.
“We cannot let that happen. As postal votes continue to land across Scotland, voters must back the Scottish Conservatives on their peach ballot paper.”
SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said: “This is another encouraging poll showing the SNP with a commanding lead – but there is no room for complacency and we will be working hard for every vote.
“Today’s poll shows that a historic SNP majority is all to play for – which would secure a fresh start with independence and lock Nigel Farage out of power in Scotland.”
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