Why Scottish Government's Grangemouth plan is 'far too late' as almost 3,000 jobs face 'dire' consequences

Although Petroineos’s decision to close Scotland’s only oil refinery will have come as little shock, it is devastating for the workers. A total of 400 of the roughly 475 workers at the refinery are set to lose their jobs over the next two years. They have received promises over the new technologies that could replace fossil fuels, but those are years away from being a reality.

READ MORE: Scotland's only oil refinery Grangemouth to close despite rescue talks as around 400 jobs facing axe

This is a commercial decision from Petroineos, but the Scottish Government pledged back in 2022 to publish a just transition plan for Grangemouth. That still has not materialised, but last week’s Programme for Government said the document would emerge by the end of the year. To many of the workers, it will feel like far too little, too late.

The 400 jobs could merely be the tip of the iceberg. Newly-published research has suggested that almost 3,000 jobs are supported by the refinery. The consequences could be dire.

Grangemouth is not the only part of Scotland’s energy make-up that will transition away from fossil fuels in the coming years - the North East oil and gas sector will be looking on through gritted teeth.

John Swinney’s Scottish Government has tried, much harder than his predecessors Humza Yousaf and Nicola Sturgeon, to cosy up to the fossil fuels industry - a step change from previous warnings from the industry that SNP ministers’ opposition was wrecking the economy.

Although the ageing refinery was never going to survive the overhaul, Grangemouth remains a crucial part of Scotland’s and the UK’s energy transition.

Grangemouth is likely to continue some of its high-energy processes by embracing hydrogen as a fuel and could lead the way on developing sustainable aviation fuel and other technologies that have been slow to get off the ground.

But the site is also expected to play a key part in the Acorn carbon capture project for the North East - with plans to shift carbon through existing pipelines to the facility near Peterhead and under the seabed.

It will stink the owner of Ineos, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, can spend £1.25 billion on buying Manchester United, but is happy to let the refinery close. Sir Jim has actively ignored the work of Holyrood in investigating a transition for Grangemouth, with the latest step showing even less goodwill to a just transition.

The Scottish Government will likely worry, however, the decision will send a message to potential investors of new energy and old energy that Scotland is not the top place to invest money as part of the transition.

Scotland has obviously done well out of the wind power boom, but that will not be the limit of the nation’s post-fossil fuels energy age.

Part of Kate Forbes’s mission as economy secretary will be to create an environment that businesses feel it is easy to put their hands in their pockets and invest. The Scottish Government is desperate for the private sector to pay for the bulk of its net zero vision. The message from the Grangemouth decision will surely hamper that aim.