Will the Scottish Greens standing a record number of candidates in the general election hurt the SNP?

The Scottish Greens say they will be standing a record number of candidates in the election, and on Monday confirmed candidates for all six Glasgow constituencies.

But given the party’s pro-independence message, could a surge in popularity for the Greens hamper the SNP’s chances at the ballot box?

The party’s co-leader Lorna Slater declared the Greens would not “stand aside” to make way for other parties, and has also ruled out doing deals at this election.

She said getting a good proportion of the vote share at the general election was the “best way” to deliver on social justice issues and tackling the climate emergency. 

Ms Slater said: “This general election is happening at a crucial time for Scotland and for our climate. We cannot continue with business as usual, but it is only the Scottish Greens who are offering the bold climate action and social transformation that is urgently needed.

“The next UK government will have to make crucial decisions about how we move on from oil and gas and deliver a just transition for our economy. We need Green voices to push for change and hold them to account.

“There will be no standing aside and no pacts with other parties. We are running in a record number of constituencies because we want as many people as possible to have the chance to show their support for our positive and vital vision of a fairer, greener and better future.

“The best way to deliver for people and planet is to ensure we get the biggest possible vote for Scottish Green candidates who will put them front and centre.”

This is a sentiment echoed by Niall McGeehan, who is co-ordinating the party’s election campaign in Glasgow. Glasgow is where the Scottish Greens are the most popular and one of the areas where they are expected to win the most votes.

On Monday the party announced its candidates for the six Glasgow seats - Amy Kettyles in Glasgow East, Iris Duane in Glasgow North, Ewan Lewis in Glasgow North-East, Niall Christie in Glasgow South, John Hamelink in Glasgow South-West, and Nick Quail in Glasgow West.

Mr McGeehan told The Scotsman no party owned Scotland’s votes at the general election.

He said: “We think everyone should have the opportunity to vote for candidates that stand up for people and the planet. There is no such thing as a wasted vote, or a stolen vote - no party owns votes.”

Clearly the Greens mean business when it comes to the election in just a few weeks’ time. But what do the polling experts have to say on the party’s chances and on the threat they pose to the SNP?

Professor Sir John Curtice said “undoubtedly” the Greens would create more difficulties for the SNP than for Scottish Labour. His assessment comes on the back of a recent YouGov poll suggesting the Nationalists might drop from 43 to just 11 seats, while Labour would triumph to become the biggest party in Scotland.

Prof Curtice said: “If you look at recent polls, the Greens seem to be getting about 3-4 per cent of the Westminster vote. If the SNP have 3-4 per cent of their Westminster vote going to the Greens, that will close the voting gap on Labour. So the Greens are almost undoubtedly doing more damage to the SNP than they are to Labour because of the nationalist question.

“I vaguely assumed when Humza Yousaf got rid of the Greens and the Bute House Agreement, part of the reason was looking for freedom to squeeze the Greens in the general election.”

The polling expert added: “Glasgow and Edinburgh are the two places the Greens are strongest, particularly in the university parts of both cities. You can see why the SNP want to squeeze them.”

Allan Faulds, from Ballot Box Scotland, agreed the Greens pose a legitimate threat to the SNP at the polls. He said the party led by Ms Slater and co-leader Patrick Harvie were unlikely to win any seats in Scotland, but stressed that does not mean their presence in the campaign won’t be influential.

He said the impact of the Greens would be felt most in the Central Belt where he claimed the SNP were set to lose seats “by significant margins”.

Mr Faulds said: “This could happen anywhere - the Greens are strongest in Glasgow and Edinburgh, but there is also half-decent support in parts of the Highlands and they are working the Borders quite hard.

“They did pretty badly in the Borders in the 2021 Scottish election, but then did well in the council election the following year. It is not necessarily the first-past-the-post system alone, it is the specific combination of Westminster and the first-past-the-post system.

“Unless you are in a handful of seats in England, the Greens will not win. Tactical votes will be used to the detriment of the Greens, just like it will for Reform UK.

“That is why first-past-the-post is a terrible voting system - people should be able to vote for any party.”

The SNP has been approached for comment.