Donald Trump inauguration: 6 challenges facing the UK and Scottish governments - tariffs, Elon Musk, visits

The incoming president brings with him a series of challenges

Donald Trump is due to be sworn is as America’s 47th President, capping a remarkable comeback that comes despite impeachments, criminal indictments, and a series of scandals.

Mr Trump will begin his second term with almost total control of Washington, allowing him to deliver on his agenda without the checks of his first presidency.

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to members of the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club on January 07U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to members of the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club on January 07
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump speaks to members of the media during a press conference at the Mar-a-Lago Club on January 07 | Getty Images

For the UK and Scottish Government, this brings with it a series of challenges, with the president-elect having taken a series of policy stances that will create headaches for Sir Keir Starmer and John Swinney.

Here are the six biggest issues expected for Scotland and the rest of the UK as Mr Trump takes office.

Tariffs

One of the biggest issues facing both administrations is the threat of tariffs. Mr Trump has repeatedly vowed to impose a 20 per cent tariff on all imports to the US, and there are real fears about the impact this could have on Scotland's lucrative whisky industry.

John Swinney, the First Minister, previously warned tariffs on whisky and other products posed a “very real” threat. The US export market is worth more than £1 billion, according to the Scotch Whisky Association.

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"We have to be aware that tariffs can be very damaging to domestic employment within Scotland because we are an exporting country, not just in relation to whisky," Mr Swinney told journalists last year.

Earlier this month, he pledged to use Mr Trump's affinity for Scotland to try to avoid this outcome, saying the new president had been "very positive about Scotland" during a phone call a few weeks ago.

"So he's got an affinity and a warmth towards Scotland and if that means it helps us to avoid tariffs that might be damaging to legitimate and important, critical, economic interests in Scotland then don't be surprised if this First Minister of Scotland uses that channel to try to secure that outcome," he said.

We've been here before, of course. A 25 per cent tariff on Scotch whisky introduced under Mr Trump in 2019 reportedly cost the industry £600 million over the 18 months it was in place. This was suspended for five years in 2021, but is due to come back into force in June.

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Last year the Prime Minister refused to say whether he has raised the issue of tariffs with Mr Trump, or expand on how the U.K. might respond. Instead, he insisted he was "alive to the danger" that such levies pose.

Ministers do not believe Mr Trump will impose tariffs on the UK, but have said they are prepared for the possibility.

Ukraine

Elon Musk is a close ally of Donald TrumpElon Musk is a close ally of Donald Trump
Elon Musk is a close ally of Donald Trump

Mr Trump is likely to press for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine early in his presidency, having previously boasted he could stop it within 24 hours.

The UK is among Kyiv’s closest European allies, providing military and cash support. However, America’s aid to the war-torn country outstrips that of its European allies, and a move towards a peace deal from Mr Trump will likely have a significant impact on how Ukraine’s other backers act, including the UK.

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Ukrainian officials fear the new US administration could open early negotiations, leaving them with a weaker hand in any discussions over territory.

Convincing Mr Trump to keep supporting Ukraine, and back it in any negotiations will be a big ask.

Sir Keir’s Government may also have to ramp up its defence spending swiftly, as Mr Trump has criticised Nato member states for not providing enough towards the alliance.

China

Mr Trump has warned that China is now the US's biggest rival, and threated to hit them with tariffs the moment he takes office. This rhetoric goes against his stance on TikTok, and also that of much of America’s allies.

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The Labour government has called for a policy of "re-engagement" with China, in a bid to boost economic growth. Chancellor Rachel Reeves travelling to Beijing this month promising "pragmatic cooperation".

However, the UK’s new ambassador to the US, Lord Mandelson, recently wrote an article for Fox News this week which flattered Trump and criticised China for being "more aggressive abroad and controlling at home". What approach the UK takes will largely be defined by the US.

Visits

Another area likely to make both administrations uneasy is the prospect of a state visit, something Mr Trump would expect.

Rolling out the red carpet for the US president is nothing new, but there would likely be large scale protests, whether in England or Scotland if he were to visit his golf course. The Scottish Greens have already claimed Mr Trump must not be given one and vowed to protest, while the Liberal Democrats have said one should only be provided if he delivers for Ukraine.

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First minister John Swinney has said he would not refuse to meet Mr Trump if he visits Scotland.

Elon Musk

The world's richest man has made attacking the UK government his new obsession, posting about them obsessively on his social media platform.

Believed to have privately held talks about how to remove Sir Keir, Mr Musk is considered by many MPs as a threat to democracy, something complicated by his closeness with Mr Trump. His role in the cabinet could create problems.

MPs hope to regulate social media, something made harder by the incoming president.

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Net zero and climate change

It seems inevitable that Mr Trump will pull the US out, once again, from the Paris Climate Change agreement, in a bid to boost the US oil and gas industry.

Having a passionate climate sceptic in the White House not only impacts the global efforts to combat climate change, but will also embolden those in Britain who see the transition as damaging UK businesses and hurting consumers.

Mr Trump has already criticised Labour’s approach to phasing out the use of North Sea oil and gas. More comments from the incoming president will require a reaction from the First Minister and Prime Minister, and embolden opponents of the green transition.

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