Conservative manifesto 'may not survive contact with reality', according to top economists
The Institute of Fiscal Studies warns the Conservative manifesto will push families into poverty and lower standards in public services.
The Scottish Conservatives’ manifesto promises “may not survive contact with reality”, according to top economists.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says the Conservatives’ plans to slash the size of the civil service is “not credible”, and warns its proposals will lead to lower standards in public services and more child poverty.
On Tuesday the party unveiled its manifesto for the 2026 Holyrood election, including plans to cut income tax and business rates, and restricting access to benefits.
The party estimates its plans to cut income tax and business rates would cost £3.7 billion a year by 2031/32 and along with its other “new measures” would cost £6bn a year by the end of the next parliament.
A costings document attached to the manifesto suggests this would be paid for by cutting access to adult disability benefits for those with mental health conditions, and introducing a two-child cap on the Scottish child payment.
However, the IFS says “history suggests there is a significant risk that the amount saved from these cuts” would not cover the “significant” tax cuts being proposed. It also warns this “would also increase child poverty among larger families”.
The Conservatives say a further £4bn would be saved by cutting the size of the civil service by 7 per cent by 2031/32 but the IFS says this would have to be on top of the “big savings” already planned in the existing Scottish spending review and real-terms cuts to councils, policing and justice. It said the proposals are “therefore not credible” and would mean “cuts to the range and quality of services provided to the residents of Scotland”.
David Phillips from the institute said: “Taking the entire package of measures together, this may be a costed plan on paper but whether it would survive contact with reality is far from clear.
“Scotland can have lower taxes and higher spending on some services - but giveaways on the scale proposed by the Scottish Conservatives cannot credibly be funded largely through back-office and administrative savings.
“In addition to cuts to benefits set out in the manifesto there would likely need to be substantial cutbacks to either the range or quality of some services used by households and businesses too.”
The IFS did however praise the Conservatives’ proposals to simplify the income tax system, and said its proposals for business rates are a “sensible rationalisation”. However, it added proposals to permanently cap rates revaluations “risks undermining the basic principle of revaluation” that bills should reflect current property values.
Craig Hoy, the Conservatives’ finance spokesman, said they are pleased the IFS is “supportive” of its plans for simplifying income tax and business rates, but added: "However, we disagree with the IFS’s assessment that savings cannot be made to the huge amount of bureaucracy that has spiralled out of control under the SNP, which even they have admitted is too large.
“We are the only party being honest with Scots about the £5bn blackhole facing the public finances due to SNP mismanagement, and the IFS’s independent analysis in complete contrast to how they demolished Reform’s manifesto, whose numbers simply don’t add up.”
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.