Anas Sarwar's huge gamble risks ending his own leadership and throwing Labour's Holyrood campaign into chaos
The biggest political move of Anas Sarwar’s career could have ended his already-slim hopes of becoming the next first minister of Scotland
“Nobody is calling us the branch office any more”, joked a senior Scottish Labour source on the day that Anas Sarwar made the biggest political gamble of his career that could cost him everything.
The Scottish Labour leader, in no uncertain terms, called for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, someone he classes as a genuine friend, to quit. Reading between the lines, Mr Sarwar has suggested that without the PM’s resignation, he cannot win May’s Holyrood election. But Mr Sarwar now may not lead Labour into that election without the Prime Minister being removed.
In what could turn out to be a complete gift to the SNP and other opponents, Mr Sarwar has risked his own leadership disintegrating before we even get to the Holyrood election campaign after appearing to be completely marooned - with several other key Labour players chickening out of going public in calling on the PM to quit.
It is understood that Mr Sarwar, after a long night watching the NFL Superbowl, made up his mind on Monday morning that he would publicly call for Sir Keir to fall on his sword with the fallout from the Peter Mandelson scandal seen as too much to tolerate.
With his mind made up, Mr Sarwar then called the Prime Minister to tell him what he was going to do that afternoon.
But this bold decision has been in the pipeline for some time. All polls indicate that the Scottish Labour leader will be forced to quit in May after leading the party into what looks poised to be a dismal election result. There is an argument that Mr Sarwar had nothing to lose in pulling the trigger.
Having held several conversations with Scottish Labour allies and several UK Cabinet ministers over the weekend, Mr Sarwar made his big decision on Monday morning and with that, he rolled the dice on a bid to resuscitate his dwindling hopes of becoming the next first minister of Scotland.
It is understood Mr Sarwar also spoke to Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, who is jointly running Scottish Labour’s Holyrood campaign alongside deputy leader Jackie Baillie. But shortly after Mr Sarwar’s jaw-dropping call for the PM to quit, Mr Alexander and a flurry of UK Cabinet ministers came out in support of Sir Keir. If the Prime Minister is able to cling on to power, it looks unthinkable Mr Sarwar could continue to guide Labour into May’s daunting election.
Several key figures including Dame Jackie looked in visible shock, sat awaiting Mr Sarwar’s bombshell at the Trades Hall in Glasgow, when whispers circulated that Welsh Labour, who had previously indicated a similar move to the Scottish Labour leader, had got cold feet and changed their mind. Mr Sarwar was all on his own.
But at just after 2.30pm, Mr Sarwar marched out at the hastily arranged press conference in Glasgow to deliver what looked like a crushing blow to the Prime Minister's chances of remaining in office.
With some of his MSPs there to support him, Mr Sarwar cut a lonely and deadly serious figure. The atmosphere was more like a funeral than a political rally.
Mr Sarwar has needed the opportunity to turn on the Prime Minister for several months, if he wanted to give himself any realistic chance of snatching victory in May’s election. But the Scottish Labour leader now looks in very real danger of his big political gamble having backfired, along with it, his own leadership.
For months now, those close to Mr Sarwar have made clear that the Prime Minister's unpopularity has left his task of winning May’s election hanging by a thread.
As Sir Keir was on the cusp of a resounding victory in the 2024 general election, the polls suggested Mr Sarwar was a shoo-in to be the next first minister of Scotland. But months of failing to deliver on the promised change has rendered Mr Sarwar’s ambitions a pipe dream at best.
A senior Scottish Labour source suggested Mr Sarwar has been left with no option but to act to ensure his is “not asked relentless questions” about the PM’s future as the party heads into the election. But if the Prime Minister does not budge, surely those questions for Mr Sarwar will simply ramp up in volume to a deafening roar he will not be able to brush aside.
The source added that the move to essentially betray his once-close friend is “something Anas has been wrestling with” for some time.
“This isn't exclusively a direct response to what's been happening in the last ten days or two weeks”, they added.
“It's a cumulative response to a government that has so many effective changes for Scotland it has delivered. It has utterly failed to communicate them because of chaos at the centre.
“Fundamentally, the leadership at Downing Street has failed to deliver the stability.”
With UK Cabinet ministers and UK Labour figures lining up to publicly support the Prime Minister, it looks as if Mr Sarwar has fumbled, potentially fatally for his own leadership. At first glance, it appears the Scottish Labour leader has failed to read the room and ensure that others publicly followed his move to try and pry Sir Keir from Downing Street.
It is understood that Mr Sarwar’s Scottish Labour MSPs are "broadly supportive" of his move.
Those close to Mr Sarwar believe that in the next week or so, the pressure on the PM will be insurmountable and the Scottish Labour leader will be left looking like he was able to gauge the situation when those at Westminster were in denial that change was inevitable.
The senior Scottish Labour source added: “People across the Labour party are going to have the next week to 10 days to make their decision.
“Ultimately, we think people in the Labour party will agree. If that's not the way the cookie crumbles, then that's politics.”
Mr Sarwar believes this was his one big chance to drive a wedge between himself and the Prime Minister in the minds of Scottish voters. But now that seed has been planted, it is the Scottish Labour leader facing a doubtful future and the real possibility of having wrecked his already-slim chances of ending the SNP’s grip on Holyrood.
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