Anas Sarwar may 'relish' 2026 election but Budget could pave rocky road to Bute House
Anas Sarwar’s road to Bute House could be a rocky one if the Labour UK government struggles to give the impression that better days lie ahead in the Budget.
Anas Sarwar insists he is “focusing on the positives”.
But not everyone in his Scottish Labour Holyrood team is convinced by the impact the party’s opening act at Westminster is having.
Earlier this month, two of Mr Sarwar’s MSPs, including his predecessor Richard Leonard, voted against the Labour whip in protest of controversial cuts by Rachel Reeves to winter fuel payments. Since becoming Scottish Labour leader more than three years ago, Mr Sarwar has had few embarrassing moments.
But the rebels, two who voted against it and five others who abstained from the vote, left Mr Sarwar licking his wounds. It is unlikely this will be a one-off.
Read more: Anas Sarwar suffers embarrassing Scottish Parliament rebellion over Labour's winter fuel payment cut
He frankly told me that “there are going to be difficult moments” for Labour now his party is in government south of the border.
But Mr Sarwar stressed that he would “much rather be in the situation I am in now going into and looking ahead to 2026 than when I took on the leadership in 2021”, referring to a time when things looked ominous for Labour.
The party looked to be toast - stuck on the sidelines while the SNP and the Tories shouted at each other about the constitution. But now the question of independence has gone away, at least for now, Labour is poised to thrive.
I asked him if he is concerned Scottish Labour, which equals support with the SNP for the 2026 Holyrood election if polling is to be believed, could be damaged by unpopular decisions taken by his colleagues at Westminster.
“Far from it,” he said, simply.
“It’s an opportunity that I relish”, he added.
Keir Starmer’s government has focused efforts on convincing the public that the economic situation is dire. I doubt there is a single person that does not believe Labour ministers about the gloomy picture they have painted.
But Labour has risked failing to convince the public that they can fix it - that they are the ones who can steady the ship and crucially, improve people’s lives.
Sir Keir has not enjoyed the usual post-election boom that governments often receive - and the vital confidence it can hand the economy.
Wednesday’s Budget could be crucial in restoring some of that faith that has prematurely ebbed away from a new government.
Labour has continued to insist it will “end austerity”, but that pledge, so far, lacks evidence. Mr Sarwar, during the general election campaign, lost his rag with John Swinney warning austerity was going nowhere, bellowing: “Read my lips: no austerity under Labour.”
That phrase, frequently quoted back to him by his SNP opponents, could come back to haunt him if Wednesday’s Budget is not up to scratch.
Scottish Labour has sat happily pointing the finger at Scotland’s two governments and watching as the public lose patience with who is in charge.
But without the Labour UK government actually ending austerity, in the eyes of the public, and handing a significant boost to the Scottish Government’s spending plans, the road to 2026 could well be a rocky one for Mr Sarwar.
Instead of being an opportunity he will “relish”, the Scottish Labour leader could miss out on the ultimate prize he will feel is currently within his grasp.
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