Aberdeen South: Kemi Badenoch on a war footing for high-stakes by-election

In what was her third visit to the north-east during this campaign, Ms Badenoch urged her supporters to send a message to both the SNP and Labour on oil and gas by voting Conservative on Thursday.

She wants this by-election to be a referendum on North Sea oil and gas, and given the media coverage over the last few weeks she appears to have managed this.

Listening to her speech at Cove Rangers FC on Tuesday afternoon, it was almost as if she were gearing her party up for a physical battle rather than a day at the ballot boxes.

READ MORE: Badenoch claims that voting in Tories in Aberdeen South would give oil and gas industry ‘the kiss of life’

She said: “The oil and gas war must end. We need to get Britain drilling again and we need to scrap the energy profits levy.

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“One of the first things I did when I became leader was changing that policy. Let’s get rid of the energy profits levy, because it’s driving businesses out of Aberdeen, out of Scotland, out of the UK.

“I know that Ed Miliband doesn’t understand this area - he is banning licences for drilling in the North Sea and at the same time we are importing oil and gas from Norway who are also drilling in the North Sea.

“Disgracefully, Labour eased sanctions on Russia while putting sanctions on Aberdeen oil. That is a disgrace, and we are going to fix it by sending a message to Labour and the SNP.”

READ MORE: Former Tory leader urges Aberdeen South not to split the unionist vote

The Conservatives remain confident they are going to win this by-election after coming tantalisingly close to winning the Holyrood equivalent seat at last month’s Scottish election.

They only came 1,200 votes behind the SNP’s Stephen Flynn, despite losing 6,000-odd votes to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

There is reason to be optimistic - the Conservatives have deep roots in the north-east.

The SNP is also bloodied from the ongoing Peter Murrell scandal. The party’s former chief executive is due to be sentenced next week after being found guilty of embezzling £400,000 from the SNP.

If there was ever a chance for the Conservatives to take advantage of the SNP while they’re down, it is now, particularly as the Scottish Greens are standing here too and could split the pro-independence vote.

But there also needs to be a word of caution too. The Holyrood and Westminster seats have different boundaries, and ones which favour the SNP here.

The Westminster seat does not include the more Conservative-leaning North Kincardine, and instead takes in more of central Aberdeen, which is more SNP-friendly.

Aberdeen South was also one of the few places the SNP managed to cling onto during their disastrous general election result in 2024, while the Conservatives languished in third place.

The SNP are not going to take this lying down now. With less than two days to go, the Scottish Government has just announced an extra £600,000 funding to regenerate Aberdeen’s Union Street.

During the election campaign, several voters in the north-east told The Scotsman their main concern was city centre regeneration and the state of Union Street - not North Sea oil and gas.

Nevertheless, Ms Badenoch remains optimistic as she gears the party up for one almighty election battle. In her speech, she said their candidate Douglas Lumsden MSP “wants this city to survive, wants this city to thrive, and so do I”.

Speaking to The Scotsman after her speech to supporters, Ms Badenoch also appeared unruffled by the threat of Reform UK splitting the pro-unionist vote here. As Reform UK are far more interested in the Makerfield by-election down south, it does appear that Aberdeen South is getting sidelined by Mr Farage.

Ms Badenoch said: “What we’ve been hearing on the doorstep is many people have regrets about letting in the SNP last time by voting for Reform, so we are getting switches.

“It’s not in the bag, but we can win as long as people remember that the only way to send a message to the SNP and Labour is by voting Conservative.

“No other party can win here.”

Polls open for the Aberdeen South by-election at 7am on Thursday 18 June.