Why John Swinney is the Gerald Ford of Scottish politics

Carter was referring to his famous inauguration speech in 1977. Ford, who served as vice president under Richard Nixon, became commander-in-chief after the latter's resignation on August 9, 1974, over the Watergate affair.

To move the country past the wounding years of Watergate (with more to come from a prosecution), Ford issued a full and unconditional pardon of Nixon on September 8, 1974. He paid the price for trying to end "our long national nightmare."

Ford lost the 1976 election, and Carter took the oath of office on January 20 1977.

Carter's inaugural words will one day be the political epitaph of John Swinney.

The First Minister, like Ford, is a conciliatory, decent man whose defining, lasting legacy with his party and his country is to restore a sense of normalcy after years of deafening political disgrace and obduracy.

Swinney does not evoke the same animus from voters to the bullish, conceited shouting matches of the Alex Salmond-Nicola Sturgeon-Humza Yousaf era.

Swinney declared last year that he would seek to govern on a "moderate centre-left" platform and would be open to working with any political party.

In the keynote address to mark St Andrew's Day, he stressed that he and his Cabinet were "not here to dictate from on high to those on the frontline."

Style over substance is one thing, but Swinney's Government is non—alarmist as it approaches its first anniversary.

His 2024-25 Programme for Government centres on investment to eradicate child poverty, grow the economy, tackle the climate emergency, and ensure high-quality and sustainable public services.Independence-only has been traded out for moderation, conciliation and a general feeling of cross-party collaboration (if not quite consensus).

"The commitments in [the PfG] are practical, not partisan," noted the FM. "They are affordable, impactful and deliverable."

There are no grand sweeping reforms, no diatribes about Westminster, nor even Swinney's SNP predecessors.

First Minister's Questions and the usual press interviews are robust but hardly riddled with Trumpian belligerence, rhetorical diatribes or gaslighting.

There is absolutely none of the shouting of the Salmond era nor the intransigence of Sturgeon's. Gone is the half-cocked shoulder shrug and utter contempt for any dissenting view from Humza Yousaf. That might have washed when you were on the winning side, but certainly not when your party is tarred with police investigations and arrests.

Swinney's Government is in a holding pattern with a decided absence of ambition.

He has the strategic vision to acknowledge that his lasting legacy is not trying to win the 2026 Holyrood election but positioning the SNP for an honourable relegation to the Opposition benches.

The only flaw in this plan is that Swinney seems more effective than he realised and is undoubtedly more effective than during his previous spell as head of his party between 2000 and 2004.

Reputationally, he has managed to distance himself from serving as Nicola Sturgeon's deputy for eight years: He is yesterday's man, today's first minister, and is convincing voters that he is next year's leadership frontrunner.

Polling conducted in 2024 suggested that Scottish Labour were on track to oust the SNP in 2026. Swinney's leadership is managing "to stem the SNP's bleeding" by holding steady support against a resurgent Labour.

Polling in 2025 now predicts the nationalists will remain the largest party at Holyrood, with Reform UK fracturing the Unionist vote. Swinney's party suffered a disastrous defeat in July's general election, returning just nine MPs, down 39 from 2019.

In retrospect, this now feels like a judgment on the mismanagement of Sturgeon and Yousaf rather than Swinney himself. It was long speculated that Swinney would serve as a caretaker administrator before making way for a new leader before the 2026 election.

He now promises to remain in post to 2031 if, as recent polling now suggests, the SNP would emerge as the largest party at Holyrood, while a pro-independence majority in the chamber would secure Swinney's position as First Minister.

Swinney, like Ford, needs to hang on without opprobrium or incident until next year. The surprise is that he is not just surviving but beginning to thrive. The fault lines will inevitably come from SNP members and backbenchers who want an attack dog demanding independence now. But even the old gradualist and fundamentalist debate that has long plagued the party has been supplanted by an acceptance of its existential vulnerability unless it demonstrates competence in government once more.

In the years to come, Swinney will likely not be remembered as a policy trailblazer. A political Hippocratic Oath now binds cabinet decision-making: do no harm to the fortunes of the SNP or Scotland's international image.

The polling rebound aside, Swinney's biggest challenge, like President Ford's, has already been achieved by restoring honour to his office. The question is whether Swinney, deep down, wants to continue. The SNP itself feels very much out of steam: domestic problems have evolved into crises of industrial proportion in every devolved competency, particularly health and housing. Borrowing from another U.S. president, there is none of the "vision thing" to tackle issues that, after nearly 20 years, have worsened on the SNP's watch.

Swinney stands for moderate centrism and stability. He cannot advance the SNP cause, and independence is several cities back in the rearview mirror. But reputationally, he has done more for his party and Scotland than can be gauged in contemporary circumstances. It may also cost him, as it cost Ford, an approaching election which may prove too hard a temptation to resist fighting in.