While Farage won big in Clacton, Badenoch’s joking fell flat
Tory leader should learn lessons from by-election and quit the uniparty to attack Labour
Although it is easy to say now that Nigel Farage was always going to win the Clacton by-election, it was not always the case.
Some people must have short memories. No sooner had Rupert Lowe, the sole MP and leader of his Restore Britain Party decided he would not contest the by-election that Nigel Farage caused by resigning his constituency seat, than the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats followed up with the same tactic very quickly.
It looked all too co-ordinated, no doubt using disappearing messages on WhatsApp.
Unwittingly their communal behaviour rather proved Farage’s point – that the mainstream politicians operate as a uniparty.
Not just when in government, not just by small margins of difference on many policies – but by operating collegiately in the political field of battle both inside and outside the Commons.
Nigel Farage claimed that the use of two complaints against him to the Standards Commissioner over donations to him (one of which has been dismissed) was an establishment fit-up job and that he wanted to give his electors of Clacton the opportunity to tell him to sling his hook or provide a fresh endorsement.
The Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch was particularly vocal in condemning his move, calling the by-election “fake”. Well, it proved a relatively popular fake event in the end and Farage came out the clear winner by a country mile.
Nigel Farage increased his actual votes by nearly five per cent – from 21,225 to 22,239 –increasing his vote share by 35.9 per cent – from 46.2 per cent to 62.8 per cent and his majority increased by 52 per cent from 8,405 to 12,784.
These three achievements, increased vote, increased vote share and increased majority were all accomplished despite the turnout of voters falling by nearly a quarter (24.1 per cent) – from 58.4 per cent in the general election to 44.37 per cent.
Whatever way one looks at it Farage showed that the constituents of Clacton were interested enough to go out and vote and they did so in higher numbers for him than before.
This was despite a period where people actually speculated that the majority of voters who had supported the other parties in the general election of 2024 could beat Farage if they all got behind one candidate.
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There were 33 other candidates, not all of them were joke figures. John Stevens of the Rejoin EU party (492 votes) and William Clouston, leader of the SDP (256 votes) are both committed democrats of long standing, who make a serious case for their parties – but they too ended up in the group of 32 that lost their deposits.
Rather than people getting behind a serious political candidate of respectable views like Clouston, many in the Westminster bubble simply wanted to ridicule Farage and turn the “fake” vote into a farce – so they talked up the electoral prospects of Count Binface, a writer of comic scripts and jokes. Oh how Farage’s opponents smirked and laughed.
But it was deadly serious for Farage, who was putting his head on the block. At one point Online Betting Guide was quoting the odds of Binface at 5/1 (with Farage at 1/9). William Hill had Binface at 12-1 and reported 80 per cent of the betting was going on the joke candidate.
Then Kemi Badenoch chose to intervene, having decided previously it was a fake, she suddenly wanted to take part, if only to send an open letter to the electors of Clacton telling them (amongst a few unsubtle partisan insults to Farage’s motives) that they “deserve better than Farage”.
She even cited the Conservative by-election win in Aberdeen South as an example of how her party cared for voters. Just not those of Clacton, on this occasion apparently.
Badenoch’s powers of logical deduction did not reason that to really offer help to Clacton folk she should have stood a candidate after all.
A Tory candidate would certainly have led the field in opposition, channelling any negativity and articulating the questions that Badenoch had preferred to make from the comfort of an easy chair.
It would have given Clacton Tories, and any non-Tories willing to hold their noses, a means to show their rejection of Nigel Farage.
Instead voters had to vote for a man who hid his face inside a bin. That he ended up receiving 9,455 votes (a 23.8 per cent share) showed that many supporters of the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats wanted to vote. But she missed her chance.
When the polling stations closed the Clacton turnout was a respectable 44.3 per cent, compared to 58.7 per cent in the general election two years ago. That was close enough to the other post general election by-elections in Runcorn & Helsby (46.2 per cent) and Gorton & Denton (47.6 per cent) to be respectable – but more importantly higher than the turnout in Aberdeen South (only 38.0 per cent) a few months ago.
Somehow I don’t think we shall be hearing Badenoch saying Farage’s turnout was poor or he lacked a mandate – for worse could be said about her man Douglas Lumsden who won in Aberdeen.
Farage caused another stir by intentionally not turning up to the announcement of the votes, thus denying the paparazzi and his political opponents the photograph they all wanted – Farage standing next to a man who would rather wear a bin than show his face.
In truth Badenoch misread the Clacton by-election from beginning to end and her party continues to attack Reform.
Just yesterday Tory MP James Cleverly was on TV rubbishing Reform’s plans to stop foreign nationals claiming all UK welfare benefits before their press conference had been held.
Badenoch should choose to quit the uniparty – and attack Labour instead.
Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotlnd.org
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