Why Scotland's looming population crisis is a warning to voters
In 2034, deaths are expected to outnumber births in the UK by 450,000
Scotland’s population is rising – but only because of immigration. However, according to the National Records of Scotland, it is now expected to start falling from mid-2034. More people are forecast to move to Scotland than leave, but “we now anticipate these levels to be too low to completely offset the gap between deaths and births”. Deaths started outnumbering births in Scotland in 2015.
This should be a serious concern for politicians, given the size of the workforce is crucial to the economy. Scotland’s looming fate is also a warning to the UK as a whole – where deaths are expected to start outnumbering births this year, rising to 450,000 more by 2034 – about the downsides of discouraging immigration.
In 2023, annual UK net migration peaked at an astonishing 944,000, but last year, the figure was 204,000. How low do we want it to go?
Voters should be wary of politicians who always characterise immigration as a bad thing. Once migrants get the message they’re not welcome, they may be hard to attract when ‘brain drain’ Britain finally discovers just how much we need them.
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