Why Scotland risks building an economy on fundamentally fragile foundations
Low-paid, insecure work remains a structural feature of Scotland’s labour market
Scotland’s economy is changing – not just in GDP figures or business confidence surveys, but in the small, everyday decisions people make about their lives. The latest Understanding Scotland Economy Tracker captures a country under financial strain, but quietly reshaping its habits, priorities and expectations.
Together, those shifts tell a bigger story about the kind of economy we’re becoming. Start with the pub. For generations, it’s been a cornerstone of Scottish social life. Yet footfall is falling as drinking declines – particularly among younger adults. Rising prices play a role, but so does culture.
Health consciousness is up; alcohol consumption is down. The tracker shows just over one-in-two people cutting non-essential spending and a similar number reducing spending on leisure activities. Does this reflect a population making different choices? Are nights out being replaced by early mornings of cold-water dips and park runs?
A more health-conscious lifestyle
Perhaps most tellingly, there’s been a big increase in outdoor saunas. Once a Nordic novelty, they’re now spreading across the countryside. They speak to a growing appetite for wellbeing and experiences rooted in nature.
Even high street stalwarts are adapting to the health trends. Greggs, long associated with sausage rolls and steak bakes, is expanding healthier options as consumer tastes evolve and weight-loss drugs drive smaller, nutrient-dense portions. The direction of travel is clear: Scotland has started recalibrating towards a more health-conscious, experience-driven way of living.
This has economic consequences. Hospitality businesses adapt or struggle. Retailers rework product lines. Employers rethink workplace wellbeing as younger workers prioritise balance over burnout. A healthier population should, in theory, mean a more productive workforce and lower long-term pressure on public services.
But here is the tension. The tracker shows almost one in three say money worries are affecting their mental health. More than one in four are losing sleep over their finances. And while there are signs that pessimism is easing for some, around three in five still believe the economy has worsened over the past year.
State-subsidised jobs
For a substantial minority, particularly the bottom third of earners, life is not about biohacking or boutique saunas. It’s a daily struggle to get by.
Low-paid, insecure work remains a structural feature of Scotland’s labour market. Universal Credit and other forms of state support are not peripheral; they are integral to making work pay for hundreds of thousands of households.
The state is effectively subsidising parts of the labour market. That reality complicates easy narratives about shrinking government or slashing taxes. The loudest calls for rolling back public spending are rarely coming from those whose wages are supplemented by the state to cover essentials.
If Scotland is serious about building a workforce fit for the future – healthier, more productive, adaptable – then investment in that bottom third is not optional. It means tackling insecure work, supporting skills development, and ensuring employment provides genuine security, not permanent precarity. It also means recognising wellbeing trends for middle and high earners can mask persistent hardship beneath.
An economy is more than a balance sheet; it is the lived experience of its people. Scotland’s shift from pints to plunges is real and, in many ways, positive. But unless rising wellbeing at the top is matched by rising security at the bottom, we risk building a healthier nation on fundamentally fragile economic foundations.
Susan Murray is the David Hume Institute’s director
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