Why Scotland can expect a snap election and a new government within just two years – Adam Morris
John Swinney’s minority SNP government may soon discover that it’s harder to pass a Scottish Budget than ever before
It seems ridiculous to countenance the prospect of a snap Holyrood election just a month after the last. But the pieces are very quickly falling into place to make the current make-up of this Scottish Parliament unsustainable for its traditional five-year cycle.
Unexpected polls in Scotland can only happen under two scenarios; if two-thirds of MSPs vote for it or the office of First Minister remains unfilled for 28 days. The first has always been written off as a possibility, not least because you would need to persuade at least 86 MSPs to put their own powerful, prestigious and well-paid jobs at risk.
However, things in Scotland are changing rapidly. Immediately after the Holyrood vote of May 7, I already thought it unlikely that we would wait until 2031 to return to the polls. On that day, Scotland elected 15 Green and 17 Reform MSPs – all of whom represent, often by their own admission, “disruption”.
Deadlock over Budget looms
The parliament has always had a few renegades dotted about, but never on this scale have there been two large groups so unpredictable and unmanageable. Both parties, following the example of their erratic fellow travellers in London, will not play by the rules, and cannot be trusted to behave in any particular way or follow established Holyrood conventions.
Not only will that create febrility in parliament, but it will make it harder for a minority government to pass a Budget. That in itself wouldn’t topple a First Minister, but it’s precisely the sort of deadlock which would set in motion political turmoil not seen in the short history of devolution.
If those considerations throw Holyrood’s immediate future in the air, recent events from the High Court in Edinburgh should drive a nail into this term’s coffin. Presently, the attention is on Peter Murrell’s extravagant crimes of embezzlement, and the question marks over the knowledge and suspicions held by his estranged wife Nicola Sturgeon.
But once the spotlight has shifted away from the former power couple, it will inevitably fall on those who remain and the SNP institution itself. John Swinney looks genuinely appalled by the whole thing, but this is a man who’s been ‘Mr SNP’ for three decades.
Maybe he didn’t know about the behaviour of his former chief executive, who purloined at will and with abandon, but as the SNP leader he holds accountability for the party’s credibility. This case has left that credibility in tatters, and before long people are going to ask one very simple question: now that we know a clearer picture, are this mob in any way fit to govern?
READ MORE: Why Swinney needs to stop defending Sturgeon and back inquiry into Murrell scandal – Jackie Baillie
Westminster instability spreading north
Then consider the fact it remains unclear if public money has been dragged into this sorry affair. If that turns out to be the case, as has been heavily hinted, it won’t just be SNP donors who are victims. It will be the taxpayer.
No party of government in Scotland has ever had to endure the media demanding its disposal en masse. But nor have we ever seen such feverish press interest in a case of financial impropriety. Would the current bedraggled SNP group be able to withstand pressure from opposition parties, the Fourth Estate and the public?
We can look down south for a hint. Westminster was the envy of the world for its political stability before Brexit. But then we had impromptu elections in 2017, 2019 and, to an extent, 2024. That shaky foundation has set the tone for the pressure currently being endured by Sir Keir Starmer.
If you’d told someone 10 years ago that a Prime Minister with such a whacking majority would be on the brink just two years into his tenure, they wouldn’t believe you, no matter how badly he’d done. But the tone has changed, and as a society we simply expect – sooner rather than later – he will be toast. It’s just what happens now in UK politics.
Mavericks and MSPs with nothing to lose
It’s only a matter of time before that culture comes to Scotland. So where would the numbers come from? Scottish Labour and the Tories have 17 and 12 seats respectively – a low watermark it would be hard to sink beneath.
They have nothing to lose, and would be far more likely to vote for a snap election now than at any time before, especially if being pressured to do so by their parties in London. Then you have a further 32 mavericks from Reform and the Greens who are still brimming with electoral confidence.
It would only then require around a third of the present SNP group, who would be so stung by the Scottish political scandal of the century, that the pressure would become intolerable. It seems shocking to us in Scotland that we could have such political instability.
But in European terms, it’s normal. Italy, although enjoying more consistency lately under Giorgia Meloni, is famously unpredictable; France has had trouble getting budgets through; and the Spanish – even though their economy is improving – are awash with scandal and court cases.
Why shouldn’t Scotland follow suit? It won’t happen this year. But within 18 months to two years, Scotland will likely be electing a new government. The SNP needs a refresh and a root-and-branch transformation, more easily done from opposition benches.
The others have nothing to lose. A political hack told me in the parliament bar back in the autumn of 2019 he felt we needed a snap general election for “reason of political hygiene”. So much had happened in the preceding months with Boris and Brexit, allowing the public to exercise democracy once again was simply unavoidable.
The Scottish public – so sickened by what they now know about their party of government since 2007 – deserve similar justice.
Adam Morris is a former director of communications for the Scottish Conservative party
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