Why North Sea oil and gas exodus will not help fight against global warming
The UK must keep its economy strong as it pursues the transition to net zero
It may well be true that the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields would cause the UK to bust its ‘carbon budget’, agreed as part of international efforts to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, it has not been remotely realistic to expect the world to hit this target for some time.
Instead, there is now a growing acceptance of the need for a different strategy, in which temperatures go above this level but are then brought back down. This will be more difficult and expensive than if we had taken swifter action. It will mean we will experience more extreme weather. But this is the reality of our situation and one we must deal with.
However, on the plus side, we will essentially get more time to transition to net zero – the point at which the warming of the world will finally stop – for the simple reason that we need it.
Unfortunately, the tenor of much of the debate has focussed on the supply of fossil fuels, and particularly new projects like Rosebank and Jackdaw, as if turning off the taps would magically solve the problem. This is a ridiculously over-simplistic view of how the world works, and one that has frustrated genuine experts in decarbonisation.
Instead, it is far more important to address the demand for fossil fuels if carbon emissions are to be reduced. Currently, about 25 million out of the UK’s 30 million homes are heated by gas boilers. If we are to get to net zero, this is an example of the problems that will need to be solved.
It should be obvious to all that the solutions must be ones the country can afford. A collapsed economy is not going to make it to net zero. This is just one reason why the government must take seriously a warning by Holly Pattenden, vice-president of Norwegian energy giant Equinor, that supply chain companies could leave the North Sea if Rosebank and Jackdaw are not approved quickly.
The world is about to enter a climate deemed “dangerous” by scientists. The last thing we should do is panic.
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