Why nationalists should be concerned by John Swinney's latest outlandish claim about Scottish independence
Bouncing Scotland into independence on the thinnest of majorities would likely end badly for all concerned
According to John Swinney, Andy Burnham will be the UK’s last Prime Minister. This headline-grabbing assertion – made after the First Minister signed an agreement with the leaders of Northern Ireland and Wales designed to ramp up the pressure on Labour to allow independence referendums – is revealing for two reasons.
This first is that, as Swinney wants a Scottish referendum to be held by 2031, he has apparently ruled out anyone else but Burnham winning the 2029 general election. It’s a political judgment that he is, of course, free to make, but some may question.
The second is more serious. According to Swinney, “the people of Scotland, if given the choice of independence in a referendum, will take that choice... Because all of the information that we see in front of us about the trends in opinion polling indicate that's the preference of the people of Scotland.”
A fragile foundation
This is simply not true. In recent years, opinion polls have basically been hovering around 50-50; sometimes independence is ahead, sometimes the Union. However, even if Swinney’s nationalist blinkers prevent him from seeing some polls, he should still recognise he has considerable work to do.
Any party that’s serious about independence should recognise the need to build support for the creation of a new nation far beyond 50 per cent plus one vote.
In 2018, economist Andrew Wilson’s reasonably credible report on the economics of an independent Scotland warned of difficult times in its early years. In that case, a new nation built on a fragile foundation of public support could quickly descend into rancour and discord, particularly as some of the SNP’s more overblown promises – such as household energy bills cut by a third – proved empty.
It should be accepted by all that independence would need the support of at least 60 per cent of voters. If this was achieved, while unionists would be dismayed, many would accept the result and grant ‘losers’ consent’. As with Brexit, a close result would almost certainly inspire a campaign to rejoin the UK.
Swinney’s remarks suggest he hopes to bounce Scotland into independence on the thinnest of majorities. Even diehard nationalists ought to realise that’s simply not good enough.
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