Why Kemi Badenoch's decision to align Tories with Trump will destroy them

It may be tempting for the Conservative leader to ape the US President and his acolytes, but it is a fundamental mistake that could, ultimately, destroy her party.

Badenoch still does not appear to realise why Nigel Farage’s Reform UK became so popular in such a short space of time. In government, the Conservatives made reducing immigration one of their main issues, while it rose to a record-high, making them look weak.

Rather than explaining why immigration was high, they attempted to look tough by dreaming up the bizarre Rwanda scheme. In doing so, they effectively campaigned against themselves and for Reform. Tory voters who swallowed their rhetoric weren’t left with much of a choice, were they?

‘Everyday people’

By treating Trump as their hero, Badenoch and other leading Conservatives like Robert Jenrick are making a similar mistake. Everyone knows Trump’s UK fan club is led by Farage, and why settle for an imitation when you can vote for the real thing?

On Monday, Badenoch claimed “the very essence of democracy is acknowledging the will of everyday people and then actually making it happen”. No, it isn’t. It’s about coming up with ideas, making the case for them, then asking for people’s support.

A politician who follows “the will of everyday people” is a follower, not a leader. Neither Farage nor Trump does – they lead and expect others to follow, giving them an air of authenticity.

As with immigration, Conservatives who spout Trumpian rhetoric are doing Reform’s work for it, shifting the debate onto a battlefield of Farage’s choosing and setting themselves up for defeat.

I regard myself as an “everyday person” but find myself concerned for those who Badenoch regards as being outwith this group. Don’t their views count? However, given she said “don’t listen to the media class complain about populism”, perhaps I’m not “everyday” in the way she means. I also disagree with the idea of dividing society into different “classes”, but perhaps Badenoch will explain my mistake as she elaborates on her new philosophy, which sounds to me like a weird right-wing/Marxist hybrid.

An inevitable collision with reality

However, the biggest threat posed by the Conservatives’ increasingly Trumpian stance is not driving voters into Reform’s arms, but the problem that will ultimately ensure the downfall of populism: it’s inevitable collision with reality.

Whatever you think of the UK’s mainstream parties, with some exceptions, they have mostly tried to tackle real-world problems. Rishi Sunak discovered how hard this can be; Keir Starmer has just experienced a six-month crash course.

Populists, however, rely on whipping up support using nationalism, anti-immigration sentiments and culture war issues that can arouse huge passions but don’t make that much of a difference to the majority of people. This leads them to say silly things.

‘The threat from within’

During last summer’s far-right riots, Musk claimed “civil war is inevitable” in the UK, a remark that was both recklessly inflammatory and also stupidly funny. And, speaking in Munich last week, Vance told leading European politicians: "The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia. It's not China. It's not any other external actor.

“What I worry about is the threat from within – the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America."

At a time when Russian bombs are falling on democratic Ukraine, this was just as ridiculous as Musk’s civil war remark, but not remotely funny. The absence of humour was underlined when Vance met the leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party.

In June last year, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a direct appeal in the German Bundestag for more support for his country, a large number of AfD lawmakers walked out. AfD politician Nico Köhler told Deutsche Welle he supported "some members of the German Bundestag who are not in favour of constantly shoving weapons and money up his [Zelensky’s] ass."

Middle East ‘Riviera’ tickets, anyone?

The AfD are some of Putin’s best friends in Germany, yet Vance chose to meet the party’s leader, shortly before Germany’s national election and ahead of talks between the US and Russia about ending the war in Ukraine, which for no good reason do not involve Ukraine.

There are fears these talks are designed to produce a peace deal that Kyiv cannot accept, so it can be blamed for continuing the fighting, ‘justifying’ Trump ending support for Ukraine and normalising relations with the blood-drenched Putin. No wonder Zelensky has called for the creation of a European army.

If any Conservatives think Trump’s international policies will end well, I have a ticket to the future ‘Riviera of the Middle East’ in Gaza to sell them.

Defeat, disgrace, destruction

Trump’s opposition to action on climate change is another policy that will be increasingly undone as storms, floods and wildfires become increasingly dangerous. The Conservatives have not yet fully embraced his or Reform UK’s level of denial about the need for action, but they are edging closer to that position.

Shortly after Trump’s election, former Conservative leader Michael Howard warned Badenoch, in an article for the Express, that “our party must avoid the same kind of climate scepticism espoused by Trump or we might as well prepare for ten years of opposition now... we must not copy and paste Trump’s slogans like ‘drill, baby, drill.’”

I suspect there is still a constituency for climate ‘scepticism’ but, nonetheless, it is a position that will become untenable over the next decade or so in the face of increasingly extreme weather.

The Trumpists are understandably buoyant, but political parties which choose to cosy up to them too much will end up being tarred with the same brush and will, ultimately, share the same fate: defeat, disgrace and, potentially, destruction.