Why Keir Starmer's blunder over Andy Burnham makes his downfall more likely
Many Labour politicians may conclude that Keir Starmer has put his own survival as Prime Minister ahead of party and country
If Keir Starmer hopes his fellow Labour members will believe that blocking Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham – a popular politician at a time when they are rather scarce – from standing in a forthcoming Westminster by-election is in the best interests of his party, he is mistaken.
Capable leaders do not run scared of potential rivals or even allow the impression to be created that they are afraid of them. This is a weak leader’s attempt to be strong.
Furthermore, given Labour’s standing in the polls, they need all the help they can get. If Burnham had been given a senior position in Cabinet, the presence of a political heavyweight might have helped steady Starmer’s increasingly rocky ship. We suspect many Labour politicians will privately conclude that Starmer has put his own survival as Prime Minister ahead of party and country.
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Starmer robs Labour of potential fresh start
That said, most will likely fall into line for now. Only if passions get the better of common sense would Labour MPs try to oust their leader just in time for his replacement to take responsibility for the expected bad results in the Scottish and Welsh parliament and English council elections in May.
However, if the Labour candidate loses the by-election that Burnham might have won, the eventual party inquest into what’s been going wrong will be all the more bitter.
So Starmer has actually made his downfall more likely, not less, and now Burnham, one of the few politicians with a fighting chance of giving the party a fresh start, will not be in a position to replace him.
The Prime Minister’s poor political judgment has already seen a series of U-turns on policies such as winter fuel payments for pensioners, disability benefits and inheritance tax for farmers.
He has not been helped by left-wing rebels repeatedly causing trouble, but any leader needs to have the political nous to understand their own followers and, consequently, what is achievable and what is not.
Starmer is, however, right about one thing: the growing electoral strength of Reform UK. If the Conservative party continues to splinter and Labour is increasingly consumed by petty, careerist infighting, the next general election could be a walkover.