Why John Swinney is kidding himself about public 'confidence' in the SNP

Clearly, any attempt to measure the public’s ‘confidence’ is always going to be tricky but, in terms of the opinion polls at least, support for the SNP has not exactly been setting the heather alight.

According to the Electoral Calculus website, an average of 31.6 per cent of respondents told pollsters they supported the SNP between July 2024 and January this year, while a more recent Ipsos poll put the party on 36 per cent in the constituency vote but just 26 per cent on the list.

Long-term SNP decline

The main story in Scotland since the 2024 election has been the falling support for Labour and the rise of Reform, although their support has dipped of late. Swinney has undoubtedly steadied the ship since the chaos under Humza Yousaf and during the latter part of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in office, but he’s not been winning people over in their droves.

The longer term trend for the SNP is one of decline, down from the remarkable 47.7 per cent secured in the 2021 Holyrood election constituency vote, when Labour’s 21.6 per cent was only slightly higher than they are polling now.

The main reason that SNP spirits are so high is that the splitting of votes between all the main opposition parties means they are set to be returned as the party of government, and might even win a majority.

‘On Scotland’s side’

However, getting elected to power is one thing and running a country is another, as Keir Starmer has been discovering. The SNP may find themselves firmly in control of the Holyrood parliament but surrounded by a decidedly discontented population.

It’s reasonable to conclude that the two-thirds of voters likely to back another party do not have Swinney’s “confidence” in the SNP and don’t think they have been delivering. They may well also contest the idea that the nationalists are “on Scotland's side” – along with the implied slur that the party they voted for is not.

Indeed, some would argue that while the SNP are on the side of independence, that’s a very different thing to being truly on Scotland’s side – as demonstrated, on a regular basis, by our dilapidated and hard-pressed public services.