Why John Swinney could become the new Keir Starmer if he pushes independence too hard
Even as the SNP celebrate, the party should recognise its popularity is on the slide and the need to fix the economy
As the results started to come in, the picture quickly became clear, with The Scotsman’s online interactive map of the country steadily turning SNP yellow. There were setbacks for the nationalists, like the loss of the Western Isles to Labour and Edinburgh Central to the Greens, but also the surprise capture of Shetland, after 27 years of electing a Liberal Democrat MSP.
Other trends should give John Swinney pause for thought. In seat after seat, the turnout was down on 2021 and, in seat after seat, the SNP’s vote share was significantly reduced.
Some might say it was not a bad result for a party that has been in government for nearly 20 years, but this was certainly no ringing endorsement. Instead, the nationalists’ success was in large part the result of the splintering of the opposition vote, with Reform UK’s sudden surge in popularity effectively killing off the chances of another party ousting the SNP in several seats.
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An unpopular victory
As we suggested they might before the election, Swinney and co now find themselves in a similar position to Keir Starmer after the 2024 general election – celebrating a victory but not a popular one, with SNP voters far outnumbered by the combined total of other parties’ supporters.
It makes for a politically difficult situation. Starmer’s troubles are a warning to the SNP about how quickly the public can, in these volatile times, turn against a newly elected government if it starts making mistakes.
In many areas, the Labour vote held up surprisingly well, at least compared to the party’s poor result in 2021, with the ‘Starmer effect’ dampening down the party’s challenge rather than crushing the life out of it.
However, coupled with the loss of hundreds of councillors in England and a devastating result in Wales, the Prime Minister must now realise he is part of Labour’s problem and it’s time for him to go. Anas Sarwar may have led Scottish Labour to defeat, but Starmer’s unpopularity and his government’s failure to get the economy going were decisive factors in this election.
‘Blame Westminster’ no more
As for the SNP, the daunting realisation that they must now make is the need to sideline their ultimate aim of Scottish independence. The country needs a government focussed on finding ways to boost the economy, tackle the scandalously long waiting lists for NHS treatment, and set our education system to rights.
What it absolutely does not need is five years of pointless constitutional bickering with Labour in London – and then, perhaps, with a Reform government – to tired choruses of ‘blame Westminster’ and ‘only independence will fix our problems’.
If the SNP can make real progress and succeed in lifting the mood of the nation as a whole, only then should they consider making a push for a second referendum, which is obviously something they will always pursue.
However, the question remains whether the party has the stomach for the hard work and hard choices required to make a real difference to people’s lives or whether they will seek to take the easy way out seemingly offered by empty nationalist rhetoric. Swinney needs to show that he is better than that.
If he does not, public discontent and cynicism about politics will only grow and, in all likelihood, this will fuel support for the hard-left Scottish Greens and hard-right Reform. South of the Border, Green leader Zack Polanski reckons the battle between these two parties represents the “new politics”.
John Swinney needs to recognise that threat or he yet may discover that he’s a Scottish version of the hapless, unfortunate and politically doomed Keir Starmer.
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