Why 'first draft of history' has lots of bad news for SNP and Labour

Soviet dissident writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn used newspaper extracts to illustrate the domestic backdrop to his brilliant, fictionalised account of the first weeks of the First World War on the Eastern Front, August 1914. And I recall a conversation with author Michael Fry about his history of Edinburgh, answering in the negative to his question if anything had surprised me.

Only afterwards did I remember it wasn’t true because I was indeed surprised that he’d obviously gone to great lengths to write the whole thing without any newspaper sources. A history of Edinburgh without mentioning The Scotsman, Evening News or Dispatch? Who’d a-thunk it?

Political contortions

I digress, and the days of coffee house patrons reading early Scotsman editions in Georgian Edinburgh, of minor Russian aristocrats browsing Novoye Vremya for the latest trends, or Washington bureaucrats buried in Post editorials were long before the new era of constantly updated digital news in which all publishers and broadcasters operate.

But the phrase about the first rough draft of history came back to me as I scanned The Scotsman’s website for this column. It was a snapshot of the turbulent times in which we live, where old certainties are seemingly swept away as fast as the news updates expose their obsolescence, and circumstances contorting the two parties of government with their own contradictions.

SNP ministers to axe public sector jobs as near £5bn funding black hole emerges; Class size limit to be breached in Edinburgh schools 'to save costs'. Dundee University given £40m bailout using 'unprecedented' powers; Starmer to pledge 5 per cent defence spending as Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire. It’s all quite breathless.

Elsewhere, The Herald was reporting the Scottish Government had given the Edinburgh International Book Festival a £300,000 bung to plug the hole created by last year’s craven ending of fund manager Baillie Gifford as the headline sponsor, after climate activists put it under pressure because of BG’s miniscule investments linked to oil and gas companies and Israel.

“The NHS can afford assisted dying, Starmer tells Streeting,” reported The Times, while also revealing the “sulphurous” atmosphere within Labour about next week’s vote on welfare reform, designed to save around £5bn a year by tightening eligibility for disability benefits.

Implausible populism

It is hardly surprising public bewilderment is reflected in low polling for the main parties of government on either side of the Border and more voters are instead turning to the populism of Reform or the Lib Dems’ equally implausible “be nice to everyone” approach, as leader Sir Ed Davey goofs about with yet another water-based activity.

If, in the memorable words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth, the punching is coming from global events well beyond their control. Sir Keir Starmer will be seeking emergency dental treatment unless he quells the growing welfare reform rebellion or is prepared for the potentially fatal embarrassment of a Conservative rescue.

How does he square telling a new parliamentary party of MPs brought up on opposing “Tory austerity” that they must accept cuts in welfare to afford higher defence spending? How can he reward Health Secretary Wes Streeting for his support on welfare, by telling him to find the money for assisted dying despite NHS budgets already burst from massive pay deals not seen since the 1970s and high inflation?

Indeed, how can a Labour government retain the support of all public sector unions if, as seems unavoidable, the brief wave of wage increases ebbs while proceeding with the purchase of nuclear-capable F-35A stealth fighters, at £80 million each? Meanwhile, private investment shrinks with every fleeing non-dom.

Compulsory redundancies

Here, SNP Finance Secretary Shona Robison is preparing public sector unions for ending the totemic rejection of compulsory redundancies, when until very recently her councillors were condemning Conservatives for making the same proposal to balance council budgets. But she must have signed off the £40m rescue package for Dundee University, where mismanagement has been taken to new levels, and where the University and College Union is opposed to, guess what, compulsory redundancies.

It’s reasonable to ask if jeopardy for bad management is removed to save jobs in one institution, but potentially at the sacrifice of posts in other areas not currently making the news.

At least Dundee University’s senior management have fallen on their swords, but not so those responsible for the self-made crisis at the Edinburgh Book Festival? £300,000 is coppers in the grand scheme of things, but with public budgets under extreme pressure, what kind of message does it send when a weak, but high-profile private organisation throws away money because of hysterical, celebrity-backed pressure, only to be bailed out with taxpayers’ money?

It may be true that what we are experiencing is the just the ripple effect of global conflict, but they could be like the ripples in the sea before a tsunami arrives. Just because bombs are not falling on us does not mean we need not prepare for conflict, and there is no better illustration of the SNP’s political contortions than its ban on supporting firms connected with munitions, and the failure of Scottish Enterprise to back a welding centre carrying out work for attack submarines, while the nationalised Ferguson Marine is building sections for Type 26 frigates.

However, unlike in Russia and Iran, thank goodness we can read about it without fear.