Why Europe needs a military to match its economic might

With his customary braggadocio, the newly elected president despatched warning after warning to friend and foe alike. Economic coercion, territorial expansionism and quite literally rewriting the map, all declared from behind the presidential seal. Trump was stamping his authority and being clear that we are inhabiting an entirely new world order.

The second world leader to deliver important remarks this week – in some ways the real leader of the free world – was Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. In a fiery speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, he dished up some uncomfortable truths to his fellow European leaders.

He chided the “bystander” mentality that has infected too many of his European counterparts, warning that Europe has to “step up” and take more responsibility for its defence and security. “All European countries must be willing to spend as much on security as is truly needed, not just as much as they’ve gotten used to,” he said.

US now ‘neutral’ over Ukraine War

It was a truth that’s been spoken many times, but one only President Zelensky could deliver with some credibility. He knows better than anyone that the days of relying on the USA are gone.

That message was crystalised in stark terms by my St Andrews University colleague, Phillips O’Brien, who said: “As of now, the USA is no longer a material supporter of Ukraine. The US is neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Face facts.” If Phillips is right, and he often is, US policy on Europe’s defining security issue – the independence, freedom and sovereignty of Ukraine – is now one of neutrality.

For decades, Europe has comfortably nestled under Washington’s protective umbrella, relying on US military might as the bedrock of its security architecture. Regardless of your thoughts on that arrangement, geopolitical reality has shifted, and we Europeans must take our own security more seriously.

Modern times have exposed the fragility of this accord. The transatlantic alliance has weathered storms of unpredictability in American foreign policy before, but the hard truth is that those long-standing security guarantees have become bargaining chips in domestic US political battles.

While the US remains a crucial European ally, the writing on the wall is clear: our continent’s security can no longer be underwritten by the whims of voters in American swing states every four years.

Global threats

It is impossible to understate the urgency of the moment. Russia's war of conquest in Ukraine, China's increasing aggression – particularly through the creation of economic dependencies and its sabre-rattling on Taiwan – a destabilised and perilously fragile Middle East, and emerging threats in the cyber, space and maritime domains demand a comprehensive and unified European response, including from Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Bluntly, this must mean less queasiness from London politicians over European integration, and a reality check from us all on the cost, with an honest dialogue between politician and citizen. A debate that can seem distant, intricate and dry needs politicians to show courage, frankness and strategic foresight about the trade-offs necessary, if we are to take seriously the vital duty of any government: defence and security.

That’s why it’s so important that European and US allies work together to unlock £300 billion of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine win the war and rebuild their country. The money should go to Ukraine but making that happen would also be the single most important investment we could make in our own security.

Continuing Brexit nonsense

Keir Starmer’s government launched a Strategic Defence Review after coming to office last year. The review is being overseen by the former Nato Secretary General, George Robertson, and the inestimable Fiona Hill. If it is to be taken seriously, then it will need to consider the question of the UK’s integrated role in European security.

Though a medium-sized power that has left itself isolated with the continuing Brexit nonsense, the UK still has some capability and influence to help the debate on European security. Working closely with allies in Poland, the Baltic and Nordic states, France and the countries that make up the Joint Expeditionary Force, the UK needs to think European when considering a new defence posture that can withstand the turbulent winds coming from across the Atlantic.

The partnership with the USA, Canada and others will remain important but Europe’s security must be boldly reimagined by Europeans. Europe needs the capability to act alone when necessary, making us a more valuable ally when we partner together.

This will require changes on all fronts: economic, political, institutional and, most importantly, psychological. If we fail to rise to this moment, Europe risks the security of its own future.

Time to grow up

The window for action has been upon us for years and could be closing. Europe, the UK and Scotland included, cannot afford to wait for a fresh crisis to force its hand. The continent possesses the economic and technological resources to be a military power that matches its economic might but needs the political will. Success will require sustained cross-party political commitment that can withstand election cycles, constitutional change and national borders.

US security guarantees provided a comfort and certainty that no longer exists. The time has come for Europe to grow up geopolitically. The question is not whether this transition will happen, but whether it will happen proactively on our terms or reactively on the terms of the next crisis.

Europe's leaders would be wise to choose the former. The conversation is happening, time to join in.

Stephen Gethins is the MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry