Why Anas Sarwar should put Scottish Labour's weight behind a return to EU

Polling before Rachel Reeves’ Budget shambles was bad enough – in a YouGov survey the week before, only half of Scottish Labour voters said they would consider voting for the party again – and as it’s been downhill ever since, John Swinney would be forgiven for thinking all he needs to do to win the May election is to keep breathing.

Even Labour loyalists will question Ms Reeves’ guff about giving the Scottish Government an extra £820 million “because Anas Sarwar asked me to,” when the dogs in the street know it’s mostly made up of automatic ‘Barnett formula’ uplifts linked to increased spending in England. Even the big home crowd pleaser of removing the two-child benefit cap lost its edge in Scotland because the SNP had already taken steps to cover it from their own welfare spending.

READ MORE: It took 30 years, but the European question destroyed the Tories. Now Labour could be next

SNP pre-election largesse – thanks to Labour

The rest of that YouGov poll was the stuff of nightmares for Mr Sarwar – 75 per cent of voters disapprove of the UK Government, and Mr Swinney is the most popular party leader, despite 56 per cent of Scots disapproving of the SNP government’s actions. Such is the proportional electoral system that the SNP could break the record for the worst ruling party to stroll back into power for the fifth consecutive time.

As attention turns to the Scottish Budget next month, the Barnett spending boost just gives the SNP an opportunity to hand out pre-election largesse. And as much as Mr Sarwar will try to claim the credit, it’s unlikely voters will be in a mood to listen, especially if Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison goes against her instincts and does the smart thing by using the slack to ease the tax burden and boost Scotland’s competitiveness, rather than just pouring more taxpayers’ money down the drain of unreformed public services.

Reports of Scottish MPs agitating for Sir Keir’s removal before the election will hardly persuade the electorate that Mr Sarwar leads a disciplined outfit ready for power.

And no matter how much he tries to distance himself from the unfolding Whitehall farce, the consequence of the UK party ripping up what few promises it made in the 2024 election campaign, going backwards on subsequent pledges made in government, and just last month misleading the public about the true state of the government’s finances, is that voters are entitled to take every Labour manifesto pledge with a gritter-load of sodium chloride. The product of what looks like breathtaking cynicism is the smashing of trust.

Scottish Labour need something big

Of course, they can’t and won’t admit as much, even if it would be about the only honest thing they’ve done in the past two years, but Labour must do something before May if they are to make any inroads into a 15-point SNP lead. They need a substantial offer which isn’t just spending public money a bit differently to the SNP – difficult to do anyway when they are both essentially left-wing parties addicted to state monopolies. What could Labour as a whole UK party deliver that the SNP cannot?

The groundwork is being done and has been hinted at so often over the last few weeks to such an extent that another broken promise won’t come as any surprise – not an independence referendum but, despite ruling it out, a return to the European Single Market or the Customs Union.

On Monday, the Prime Minister said the UK had to accept “moving towards a closer relationship with the EU”, and on Wednesday Health Secretary Wes Streeting failed to rule out a return to the Customs Union, and adding “we want to make sure that we are building the strongest possible alliance with the European Union...”

In an interview on the News Agents podcast with Emily Maitlis and John Sopel on Thursday, Justice Secretary David Lammy also repeatedly refused to rule it out, only saying it was not “currently” policy. Might as well go the whole hog.

UK is an EU-style economy

A risky strategy certainly, but not in Scotland where 63 per cent of voters still back rejoining the EU. Going into a general election, it wouldn’t help recapture old Labour voters lost to Reform in places like the Durham coalfields and the North Sea ports, but due to failures on immigration, they don’t look willing to return anyway. But it could attract Lib Dems in the Home Counties and West Country.

Former Downing Street adviser Lord Danny Finkelstein devoted his column in The Times to the subject, arguing that Labour’s European-style high tax, high public spending, and restrictive employment legislation shackles the UK’s flexibility to capitalise on Brexit freedoms to compete in global markets, so they might as well embrace whatever the EU still has to offer because the differences are becoming negligible; instead the UK is left with the worst of both worlds, unable to fully embrace either the European or world markets. No wonder the economy is struggling.

Even on something as vital as mutual defence, the inherently protectionist EU maintains its barriers. Last week saw the collapse of the UK bid to join the £130 billion Security Action for Europe fund, which would have empowered government negotiations for the involvement of UK arms companies.

Obviously, EU membership isn’t a Holyrood decision, but if Anas Sarwar goes into May saying he will put Scottish Labour behind a return, then who knows, it could make the difference in a race that already looks lost. And Sir Keir Starmer might just go for it. “Because Anas asked me to.”