We the 'scunnered' deserve better whatever the outcome of the election

I was 25-years-old when the SNP first formed a Scottish government. Since then, the constitutional question has come to inform everything. It’s disheartening to think of another five years where that is allowed to be the full-stop answer to serious social and political problems. Housing crisis? Drugs deaths? Wait until independence. Educational standards slipping? Ditto.

It’s a nonsense. Whatever happens on Thursday, the next administration must urgently use the powers they have to address a palpable sense of social malaise. If I can be fair to the SNP, it would be impossible for any government in power for nearing two decades not to have amassed a long list of failures.

But – aside from the Scottish Child Payment, introduced in 2021, which by all accounts has genuinely helped struggling families – I see little evidence that yet another SNP government has the ideas to address serious social ills with the gravity they deserve and urgently need.

It was neither wise nor credible for John Swinney to pin the promise of another independence referendum on Thursday’s outcome. Should he scrape a majority as some polls suggest, or should a minority government be his lot, he’d do well to reflect that this shouldn’t be taken as a ringing endorsement of his party’s manifesto, never mind major enthusiasm for another constitutional ding-dong. With a low turnout expected, too, any claim he may make for this should be swiftly rebuked.

It is true that roughly 50 per cent of the population support the idea of independence, and most will likely vote SNP for that reason alone. Yet only 23 per cent of respondents to the final Scottish Opinion Monitor poll thought the SNP was doing a “good job” in office. It’s astonishing in many ways, and confusing for outsiders that failure is so consistently rewarded here, but such is Scottish politics.

The SNP is the main party offering independence-focused voters some kind of vague way out of the union they decry, and which they frame as being to blame for absolutely everything. But, were I that way inclined, before even contemplating another (let us presume) once-in-a-generation referendum, I’d want far more certainty of a Yes outcome before tearing the country apart again for no good reason. We are a country beset by deep divisions, which Thursday’s local elections in England and Wales seem set to prove likewise.

Leaving the SNP’s headline policy aside, though – which it should be as it has precisely zero chance of happening – I’m not unsympathetic to those who feel the need for radical change. What is clear across all metrics is that, were I still the 25-year-old I was when the SNP first came to power, I’d be facing worse outcomes than I was back then.

The spiralling cost of renting, an insecure jobs market, plus the cost of living crisis – it’s a lot to be faced with, particularly for those from working-class backgrounds. For many young voters, it culminates in feeling a lack of agency over their own fates.

Moreso, who can deny the grievance many feel? Saddled with debt, poorer than their parents, and often unable to see a route to both secure employment never mind home ownership: while the constitutional question divides the country, the intergenerational divide, fuelled by very real inequities, has become a serious problem in British politics generally.

Across the UK, the rise of Reform and the Greens reflects the mood that established, centrist parties simply don’t have the answers for the problems people face. Both are populists like the SNP are, leaning in to public grievances in different ways. In Wales, Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru are predicted by polling to become the largest party in the Senedd for the first time, too.

We are divided along so many lines: geography, age, income. Neither Welsh nor Scottish independence, it should be said, offers clear answers to any of the problems facing us either.

But the impulse for a clean slate can certainly be understood. The SNP benefits in another way in Scottish elections, in that – unlike the other parties – their performance at Westminster doesn’t come into play. Both Russell Findlay of the Scottish Tories, and Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar, have to contend with this.

The deeply unpopular UK Labour government are certain to face bruising results in the local elections. Though Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is widely viewed as a capable leader, providing strong opposition to Keir Starmer, her party is as divided as the country.

It will be a long time before the public forgives the disaster of the Johnson, Truss, then Sunak administrations, the upheaval of Brexit, Covid party scandals, and much more besides. The Tories have also been beset by defections to Reform.

Here, Russell Findlay has unwisely seemed to view targeting Malcolm Offord, Reform’s leader in Scotland, as a more worthy pursuit than setting out a strong, ‘small c’ conservative offering, which – though many forget this – used to be quite appealing to Scots.

Sarwar on the other hand has chosen to distance himself entirely from Starmer by calling for him to resign. While that was widely viewed as a miscalculation at the time, it may well be forthcoming should UK Labour do as badly on Thursday as has been predicted. ‘Scunnered’ has been the word of this election period, with tactical voting predicted to swing whatever outcome results. In the aftermath, let’s hope we can reach consensus on one thing: all of us, UK-wide, deserve better leadership across our various divisions than we currently have.