We cannot afford another five years of a deepening housing emergency

The decline in housebuilding is despite numerous government targets since the SNP first took office. For example, in 2007, the new government committed to increase the number of homes completed to 35,000 annually by the ‘middle of the next decade’. That did not happen, and Scotland has never come close. Scotland is effectively missing a quarter of a million new homes – equivalent to a city the size of Edinburgh, or twice as large as Aberdeen.

This gap has created a housing emergency in Scotland. It has created a very real sense that things are not working as they should. Families are struggling to afford the roof over their head, with average property prices and average rents rising faster than wages over the past decade. People are priced out of owning a home in communities across the country, particularly in rural areas and the islands. And economic growth in Scotland has been held back.

Over 190,000 people are pushed into poverty because their housing costs are so high, including 35,000 children. The number of families and children stuck in temporary accommodation has reached record levels. Ultimately there is no path to meeting the child poverty targets without tackling the cost of housing.

Scotland has been pushed into the grip of this housing emergency because Scottish government policy has been unambitious, restrictive and counterproductive.

Planning policy doesn’t prioritise the need to build more homes, and is preventing land from being allocated to meet housing need – including for social homes. Getting planning permission is now too expensive, uncertain, and time-consuming for developers of all kinds due to a lack of capacity in local authorities.

The Scottish government will spend £197m less in real terms on affordable and social housing in 2025-26 than it did at the start of the parliament. This has severely knocked confidence, with developers of affordable homes now much less likely to undertake the long process of building new homes. And regulation has added thousands of pounds onto the cost of building, undermining development and leaving people trapped in substandard existing homes.

With polling day six weeks away, candidates across Scotland are seeing the impact of this as they are speaking to voters. The SNP have clearly lost the confidence of the nation when it comes to housing policy. Our survey with YouGov asked how much Scottish people trusted the SNP and John Swinney to handle the issue of housing. 58 per cent of respondents said either ‘not very much’ or ‘not at all’. The forthcoming election is the chance for a reset in housing policy. Scottish voters support building more homes: 67 per cent of survey respondents said an increase in the supply of housing would have either a ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ positive impact. Ministers should respond to public demand. They should get Scotland building again, cut housing costs, and ensure everyone can afford a good quality home – wherever they live.

But whoever forms the next government will face a difficult inheritance and will need to be ambitious in response. Our report offers a clear path out of this crisis.

The next Scottish government should commit to a genuinely ambitious housing target that delivers the enough homes to meet need. They should simplify the planning system, build more homes where infrastructure already exists, and increase funding for social housing. And they should encourage greater affordable housing supply in rural, remote and island areas of Scotland.

After 7th May, the next Scottish government must get the country building again. Ministers cannot condemn Scotland to five more years of a deepening housing emergency. The time for policy failure is over. The next government must deliver.

Kath Sangster, National Director of the Scottish Fabians

Ben Cooper, Head of the Fabian Housing Centre