UK didn't attack Iran but we're still having to defend ourselves
Iran’s tactic of economic warfare was predictable and is having global consequences
There is something about the current war in Iran which tells me that the US and Israel may have made a massive miscalculation which will affect us all. In our pockets.
We had ample warning, not just in recent years, but in previous decades that the strangling of energy supplies was an effective tactic.
Of course Iran was a danger if it pursued nuclear armaments and the people of that country should have our support in the pursuit of democracy, but that a diplomatic route would have been better for us all is becoming clearer every day.
In the immediate aftermath of the attacks on Iran, we saw heating oil prices in this country almost treble in a week. The Iranians closed off sea routes, attacked oil-rich neighbours to discourage support of the US and Israel, and attacked tankers and cargo ships.
READ MORE: No one knows how this Gulf War will end – but we should welcome the downfall of the Iranian regime
Oil price crises
The markets were, perhaps not surprisingly, quicker to realise the implications of the attack than either of the protagonist governments despite that decades-old evidence.
I clearly remember as a child the impact of the Opec oil embargo of 1973 following European and American support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Oil rose to what at that time was a frightening $12 a barrel from just $3. This weekend it hit $100 dollars.
In the 1970s, it caused inflation, economic disruption and fuel shortages. Domestic energy prices rose. More recently we all experienced the expensive impact on gas and energy prices generally of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the closure of the pipeline.
So it’s astonishing that we were not better prepared for Iran’s economic tactics when they came. And now, ironically, the US response is to lift the sanctions on Russia which were designed to hamper their war on Ukraine.
We can argue about whether Ed Miliband is right in his pursuit of net zero as an answer at the cost of the North Sea industry. Or whether this is the point at which we have to slow down, rather than accelerate the natural decline of our oil and gas industries.
The real issue is how we prevent ourselves being the economic victims of the Iranian retaliation.
Rising death toll
Watching US Defence Secretary Pete Hesgeth proclaim that Iran has no air defences was of little consolation to those whose energy bills have gone through the roof. Or to Ukrainians who fear the lifting of the sanctions will allow Putin the economic headroom to inflict even more damage on their country.
Or to the Arab nations who made peace with Israel through the Abraham Accords or recognised the value of peaceful cohabitation and now find themselves targets.
Worst of all, the death toll across the region has begun to rise and we have no clear picture of when peace will come or what it will look like.
Our government was, I believe, right not to plunge into a potentially illegal war and repeat the mistakes of Iraq. But to claim that we are not involved, and not as much a target in some ways as the Gulf states, would be to close our eyes to the truth.
The US and Israel may be the ones carrying out military operations but the rest of us are having to mount a defence.
Christine Jardine is Scottish Liberal Democrat MP for Edinburgh West
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