Trump’s wrong, Russia is eminently beatable but UK needs to end its isolationist approach

During that time, Russia has managed to move the frontline about 25 miles from where it was and is currently bogged down in another city it has devastated in Ukraine’s Donbas region. The war is estimated to have cost Russia a million casualties, billions in revenues it can ill afford and isolation from key markets, not to mention the loss of countless civilian lives, destruction of once-thriving communities and the kidnapping of Ukrainian children and other civilians.

For all the horror it’s visiting on its neighbour, Russia is eminently beatable. Its economy is just one tenth that of the European Union – about the same size as that of Belgium and the Netherlands. Whilst the Russian army has made some improvements after woeful performances in its wars in Georgia, Syria, and Chechnya, it’s been unable to beat its much smaller Ukrainian opponent. Instead that country has made notable gains in the Black Sea, and in the south and east of the country.

READ MORE: Why we must never forget Vladimir Putin is a stone cold killer

Trump’s attempt to reward aggression

Yet, too many still see Russia’s victory as being inevitable. The White House peace plan is dangerous and unfairly treats Ukraine as being vanquished.

It would see Russia rewarded for its aggression with territorial gains and restrictions on Ukraine’s army and its sovereignty. It would see a dictatorship rewarded for inflicting violence on its neighbours and a European democracy undermined. It would see a European democracy unable to join the EU or Nato even if that was its democratic wish.

READ MORE: Why Ukrainians, hardened by war, will take the fight to Russia if Donald Trump betrays them

That should be a concern to anyone who believes in democracy and rule of law. If anyone thinks this is a faraway war in a country of which we know little, think again. Just this week, a minister updated the Commons on the inquiry about the tragic death of Dawn Sturgess in Wiltshire – a woman murdered after a chemical weapons attack launched by Russian agents. These are agents sent by a Russian president whose navy and air force regularly appear close to Scottish territory and who reportedly launches cyberattacks against UK businesses and governments.

READ MORE: Russian interference in UK politics: Why more than 100,000 people want a public inquiry

A fight for freedom

Russia’s neighbours in Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and elsewhere, all of whom have suffered from the Kremlin’s expansionist agenda over the years, understand the threat. Residents of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have thrived since independence when they threw off the Russian rule that saw whole populations deported, and thousands killed in purges and political executions. Poland was carved up in a deal struck between the Kremlin and Nazi Germany with millions of its citizens slaughtered in the ensuing occupation.

Across Europe, populations see Ukraine’s struggle as being one of a fight for freedom and democracy in their own countries as well as that of Ukraine. At a time when the United States has become increasingly unreliable, and worryingly close to the Kremlin, Europeans are belatedly recognising that they must pull together to defend the rights and democracy that we have taken for granted for far too long.

This is now an integral part of the European project. The UK leaving the EU was a boon for the Kremlin, by undermining the EU and leaving the UK more isolated and less secure.

There has been a steep domestic cost, with Brexit costing the Treasury £250 million a day, pushing up taxes and the cost of living. Labour have started to understand the damage but, like so many policy areas, their inaction and malaise on the question of European cooperation, remains a source of weakness.

Canada moving closer to EU

Just this week, the European Union welcomed Canada’s participation in its 150-billion-euro Safe defence procurement programme – a serious effort at European rearmament that will “provide vital support to Ukraine and increase the resiliency of the Ukrainian defence industry”.

Prime Minister Mark Carney knows that Canada joining its European allies makes it less reliant on its southern neighbour. He welcomed the agreement and the increased European-Canadian defence cooperation as being good for his country with “more access to new equipment for our armed forces, more investment in Canada, and massive opportunities for Canadian workers and businesses”.

Similar talks with the UK have collapsed, as Westminster continues to struggle with the UK’s status as a ‘third country’ (ie, a non-EU member). This is bad news for democracies in the rest of Europe, but it’s worse for the UK. Jobs, investment and security sacrificed for a Brexit that no one bothers to defend any more.

At any time, this would be a blow, but as threats from Russia and China increase and the US retreats, failure to reach an agreement – while Canada, on the other side of the Atlantic makes one – is gravely irresponsible.

The lessons that the rest of Europe is coming to grips with is that dictators in the Kremlin rarely respect international agreements or the rights of their neighbours. The rush to join Nato and the EU in the aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union has seen living standards and human rights improve significantly. More than that, it has also provided a security haven for those previously threatened by Russia and its colonial ambitions.

Democracy in Europe is under threat. Ukraine is the front line in the fight to defend the rights and the democracy that we take for granted. The UK’s isolation has gone from being unwise to an act of negligent folly. As we enter the fourth year of the conflict in Ukraine, the challenge we face in Europe is one that dwarfs other political discussions and debates – and one we can no longer afford to duck.

Stephen Gethins is the MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry