The reason why Reform UK is set to be Scotland's third-largest party is simple

When, however, the first Westminster by-election since the new government came to power is held on the same day as local elections – and there are a good number of mayoralty elections too, there is a chance the English results may just catch our eye.

Adding some additional heat to an already spicy context is the possibility that elections for the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd next spring might be influenced by how reputations are damaged or improved.

Labour’s 16th safest seat lost

What happened last Thursday cannot be downplayed or underestimated. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party smashed through some unexpected benchmarks and recorded highly impressive wins that have put both Labour and the Conservatives on notice.

For the record, the Reform candidate, Sarah Pochin won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election after a recount. Although the majority was only six votes, it matters not, like winning the Scottish Cup, it’s only the winning team that’s remembered.

Runcorn was the 16th safest Labour seat in the UK, with a Labour majority of 14,696 – the party would have a great deal of information about where its vote was – yet many decided to vote Reform instead or simply ignored Labour’s desperate appeals.

When it came to the mayoralties, Reform won two of the six available, taking Lincolnshire with 42 per cent of the vote and a 40,000 majority, and Hull with 36 per cent of the vote, with Labour 30,000 votes behind Reform in an embarrassing fourth. It was almost worse in North Tyneside where Labour hung onto the mayoralty by only 444 votes and in Doncaster by only 698 – both from big majorities before.

Cliched, meaningless blah

In the councils, Reform gained 677 seats and took control of Derbyshire, Durham, Kent, Lancashire, Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and Staffordshire county councils when previously they controlled none. All except Durham – a Labour council for over 100 years – were taken from the Conservatives.

This outcome came as no surprise for it was the first time that voters could show what they really think of Labour’s time in government so far. After the winter fuel payment cuts, the cuts to various disability payments and record tax rises for no obvious benefit, Labour was always on the back foot.

After the mauling of his party, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said “I get it”, adding he would press ahead with change “further and faster”. It’s the sort of cliched, meaningless blah that nowadays passes for a political mea culpa.

It really means Starmer is none the wiser about what he’s done wrong and how to put matters right. If you are lost and don’t know which direction to take, the last thing you should do is go further and faster.

UK’s response to Trump’s tariffs

As an example, the UK faces an economic shock from whatever tariffs US President Trump continues to pursue. Starmer should be doing everything in his power to cut a deal with Trump so those tariffs are mitigated or made to disappear. Thanks to Brexit, he has the power to take decisions without reference to 27 other countries agreeing – but he looks set to blow it.

If a deal means pulling back from an EU reset that will make our economy even weaker – giving away more fishing quotas, making poorer quality EU imports easier and abrogating responsibility for our defence and security – then he should not hand over further powers to Brussels, he should reverse.

Likewise, if costs to the public and our businesses are to be made higher by pursuing net-zero policies – that in addition result perversely in a larger carbon footprint – then the UK should not go further and faster in importing foreign oil and gas but should reverse current policy and drill, baby drill.

It was Starmer’s mad, bad and dangerous-to-follow policies that put the UK at the brink of its own recession before Trump was on the scene – and he needs to reverse. It is Starmer’s technocratic arrogance that has scunnered and angered people now losing their jobs in Scotland and Stoke and Scunthorpe thanks to Miliband’s ‘Net Stupid Zero’ policies.

Yet Starmer intends to still proceed with his tobacco and vape Bill that will breach the EU tobacco directive – so why proceed with that but not cut tariffs on US imports?

SNP for dinner

As for the SNP, it should be worried. Starmer joked that Reform was having the Tories for breakfast, to which Farage replied he would be having Labour for lunch. The way support for Reform is growing in Scotland, there is every possibility Farage will be having the SNP for dinner next year.

Swinney has said Reform isn’t welcome in Scotland, the sort of shameless othering that displayed a lack of self-awareness from years of blaming everyone else for decisions taken in Scotland by the SNP.

First Minister, Reform supporters are in Scotland already, they are growing in numbers and motivation, and fast-taking support from disenchanted Labour and SNP voters as well as Conservatives. Their views are not peculiar to England – genuine concern for families, communities and our country transcend the whole UK (and indeed far wider). Knowing what a woman is or which prison a male rapist goes to doesn’t start or end at Berwick or Gretna.

Local polls and current evidence points to Reform being the third largest party after the next Holyrood elections. That's not populism, its frustration with the damage Scottish MSPs sitting in Holyrood have done to our education, healthcare, economy and transport. If Reform delivers accountability for John Swinney’s failure to deliver workable, popular solutions, Holyrood will look very different on May 8 next year.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and editor of ThinkScotland.org