The lesson from East Germany which mainstream parties must listen to – Dr Fred Paxton
A large share of discontented Scottish voters sit out elections altogether but that can change
Last Sunday, the far-right AfD came first in an election in Saxony-Anhalt, east Germany, with a thumping 44 per cent of the vote. The region, home to about two million people, has lost more than a quarter of its population since German reunification, as industries closed and young people left. Similar resentment is building in Scotland, and Reform arrived at Holyrood in May off the back of it.
Grievances against the mainstream in Saxony-Anhalt have now reached the point where the far-right can only be kept out of power by a coalition of all other parties. Germans call this refusal to work with the AfD the “Brandmauer” or firewall. But this strategy risks exacerbating the grievance it exists to contain.
Germany may now follow much of Europe, with the far-right entering government. In my research, I found them often more restrained than their rhetoric suggests, limited by the responsibilities of governing. Whether that would hold for the AfD – classed as ‘right-wing extremist’ by a domestic intelligence agency – if it gained control of the police and schools is untested.
Distance from power is key
On the map of Reform's vote in May's Holyrood elections, what stands out is not simply poverty or remoteness, but, as in Saxony-Anhalt, a feeling of distance from power. Reform's best-performing region was Central Scotland and Lothians West, gaining 20 per cent of the vote, twice its share in Edinburgh. What’s most salient differs across Reform's strongest areas – immigration in some, the energy transition in others – but a common thread is resentment that decisions about these places are made by people who live elsewhere.
Yet while the AfD swept nearly every constituency in Saxony-Anhalt, after years of building a local presence, Reform entered Holyrood without a single constituency. It has votes but no local machine. A large share of Scottish discontent still sits out elections altogether, and reaching those non-voters is possible for other parties, for now.
Harsher rhetoric on immigration won't work to counter Reform; it legitimises the issue without winning back lost voters. The better bet is proximity.
Truly local government
Earlier this month, John Swinney said some councils are too small to be strategic or too big to be local. He’s right, and his answer would address the first problem: a regional tier, and fewer councils. But merging authorities that already average 170,000 people, against a European norm nearer 10,000, would make local government less local. Beneath council level sits almost nothing with money or power.
What is needed is a tier below the council with real authority, local stakes in the wind farms and grid connections reshaping these areas, and parties active on the ground between elections, with local candidates.
There is an obvious objection: push power downwards and some of it will be won by Reform. That’s a risk, but perhaps a smaller one than first appears. The evidence from local government is that governing often constrains these parties in ways that opposition does not.
While mainstream German parties are stuck holding a firewall they must repeatedly rebuild, those in Scotland still have a better option: hand these places the power to make decisions currently made for them elsewhere.
Dr Fred Paxton is a research fellow in political and international studies at the University of Glasgow and author of Restrained Radicals: Populist Radical Right Parties in Local Government
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