The big problem with Keir Starmer's drone army on the cheap – Lt Col Stuart Crawford
Labour’s defence spending plans fall far short of the £28 billion needed to maintain existing programmes
Well, what are we to make of the new Defence Investment Plan? By way of background, the ‘DIP’ was meant to follow Lord Robertson’s Strategic Defence Review of June last year and set out how the 62 recommendations contained therein were going to be funded.
Set aside for a moment the fact that Robertson’s review took a year to produce, which essentially meant it was out of date before the ink was dry, such is the pace of technological advance these days. The art of war has moved on since then. Anyway, the DIP was meant to be published last autumn but ran into Treasury headwinds which delayed publication for nine months or so.
The bottom line is that the government has been unable or unwilling to find the money to do our national defence and security justice. The UK spends nearly six times as much on welfare (£360 billion) as it does on defence (£65bn).
‘Drone mania’
Against that background, the DIP was always going to disappoint the military, and so it’s proved to be. The Ministry of Defence has stated that there is a £28bn hole in funding over the next years for existing programmes. The DIP promises roughly half of that and very little appears to be new money in the true sense; HM Treasury is expert at smoke-and-mirrors financing and has proved so again.
The main headlines so far revolve around the Royal Navy. There will be no money to replace the ageing and unreliable T45 missile-armed destroyers with the mooted T83s which are still on the drawing board. Nor will the general purpose T32 frigates progress any further.
Instead the RN is promised “at least six common combat vessels”, which reportedly will act as the controlling vessels for hordes of drones in a future hybrid navy. Frankly, I’ll believe it when I see it, if I live that long. The army and RAF have likewise been promised a raft of uncrewed, semi-autonomous drones.
‘Drone mania’ seems to have taken over the collective mind of non-expert military commentators. They have been trumpeted as the answer to our prayers. In fact, they are but another club in the golf bag, having expanded into a threat vacuum where they had no natural predators. That vacuum has now rapidly filled up with counter systems.
A damp squib
The government, and the Treasury, are attracted to drones because they seem to offer a low-cost means to bolster defence. But, turning again to the navy, it’s hard to beat Eliot Wilson’s take in the Spectator, where he writes: “As matters stand, specific platforms – Type-83 guided missile destroyers and Type-32 general-purpose frigates – are being cancelled in favour of an idea.”
To say that the DIP is underwhelming and a bit of a damp squib is, therefore, accurate but also misses the point. The real problem is the government’s spending priorities. If you accept that the first job of any government is the defence and security of its territory, citizens, and national interests then Starmer’s last defence hurrah clearly fails.
Whether our next PM will be able to do any better remains to be seen, but I’m not holding my breath.
Lieutenant Colonel Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
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