Why John Swinney may regret £2 billion gamble on National Care Service

The SNP’s plans for a National Care Service are under attack from all sides

The Scottish Government’s plan for a National Care Service sounds like a good idea, echoing as it does the National Health Service and offering hope of an improved service.

However, the spiralling cost, with £2 billion the latest estimate, has sparked growing disquiet, while councils and trade union leaders have come out against it.

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Facing calls to scrap the proposals, John Swinney insisted the national service would go ahead, saying it would remove “unfair” local variations in the provision of care.

Hospitals queued out the door

The high number of patients who are well enough to leave hospital but unable to do so without a package of home care is a cause of significant problems for the NHS, with the lack of beds to admit patients causing queues in corridors and even all the way outside to ambulances stacked up with sick and injured people who cannot be handed over.

So the First Minister has correctly identified there is a problem that must be tackled. The question is whether this should be done by a major and expensive reform of the means by which care is delivered or if the money would be better spent on the frontline services themselves.

The trade union Unison is now running a campaign against the National Care Service, saying it threatens the jobs of tens of thousands of people and would mean “a huge sum of money will be spent on structural change rather than on improving services”. New Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay warned “Scotland’s care sector is collapsing today” and “people need action today”.

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A risky decision

Under attack from both sides of the political spectrum, without the support of councils, and with a care crisis to resolve, the Scottish Government needs to think again. This may cause some embarrassment but better that than scores of elderly people spending lonely days and nights in a hospital bed for no good reason.

But if ministers proceed, whether out of conviction or pride, and risk £2 billion on this endeavour, then it better be a dramatic, transformational success. Otherwise it might just be the white elephant that finishes off the SNP as a major political force.

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