Scottish Labour: Why Anas Sarwar faces election disaster unless he apologises over gender debate
The real test for all party leaders is whether or not they can answer this question: is a male-born trans murderer a man or a woman?
Anas Sarwar is in a bad place. Marooned in the polls with only 18 per cent support and scrabbling with Reform for second place, Scottish Labour faces its worst electoral defeat since Holyrood was established.
He may have the campaign budget to contact a million voters a week, but if the electorate don’t like what they hear on the doorstop or see on TikTok, even the most digital-savvy campaign won’t make a whit of difference on May 7.
Sarwar and his backroom team has developed a coherent set of key messages, all pointing to a new direction for Scotland. It’s time for change, he urges. We can fix the NHS, he says. Labour will deliver, he promises – so far to little or no effect.
READ MORE: SNP's wrong-headed approach to trans women in female prisons shows a lack of common sense
A full-throated, heartfelt mea culpa
However, I have a suggestion that might just make a difference to Labour’s support, particularly in the all-important regional list seats, where even a one to two per cent change in women’s turnout or vote could translate into crucial seats. More importantly, it would give women a real choice when it came to casting their vote.
Anas Sarwar should apologise unreservedly to the women of Scotland for his party’s approach to women’s rights over the last decade, and in particular his refusal to listen to the women – within his party and from across Scottish society – who tried to tell him that his party’s support for self-ID and gender identity was wrong.
Not a mealy-mouthed “we should have pushed harder on the amendments" while supporting the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, or a disingenuous “we would have voted against the bill “knowing what we know now”, as he tried a year ago.
What the women of Scotland deserve is a full-throated, heartfelt mea culpa from the one man whose support for women’s rights in 2022 could have made a huge difference to the debate. A landmark speech where Anas Sarwar says to the women of Scotland: “I am sorry for supporting the Bill, and for not listening sooner to the women who warned about its impact.”
Moral courage
In one sentence, one fearless moment, he would transform his party from one that failed women to one that has the political and moral courage to stand up for their rights. He would remind voters that there is more to Labour’s manifesto than targets and spreadsheets.
And he would carve out a clear dividing line between him and Labour at Westminster, where the equalities minister Bridget Phillipson continues to equivocate on the Supreme Court judgment on sex.
A credible apology would also send a strong signal that there is still a place for honesty in politics and show that Sarwar has the potential to be a trusted First Minister, and that all politicians are not the same, a message which would be heard by every voter, not just women.
And an apology would clear the way for him to focus on practical policies that make life better for the women of Scotland. Ash Regan’s Unbuyable Bill, which would make the purchasing of sex an offence, is unlikely to reach its third stage before this parliamentary session ends on March 25. Labour could commit to changing the law if it is in government after May.
Restoring women’s trust in Labour
Statistics out this week show that maternal deaths across the UK, including Scotland, have risen by 20 per cent since 2011, and that women living in the most deprived areas have a maternal mortality rate twice that of women living in the least deprived ones. Scottish Labour could promise better care for women in pregnancy, but any pledge on women’s health will only be believed if women trust Labour.
The same with the cost of social care, the gender pay and pensions gap, violence against women and girls, sexual exploitation, childcare provision, the lack of affordable housing, the economic outlook… the list of policy areas that directly, and often disproportionately, affect women’s lives is as long as it is challenging. Labour may have some of the answers, but women will not even listen to Anas Sarwar and his team if they do not trust them.
Women right’s campaigners were mocked when they started to argue that sex matters in public policy, nearly a decade ago. Their views were dismissed as “not valid", and not just by the SNP leadership. Scottish Labour was as tone deaf to their arguments as any nationalist politician. But as the campaign gained momentum, small wins turned into significant victories. And despite the best efforts of politicians, including Anas Sarwar, and trans activists, the fundamental truth that biological sex matters prevailed. Sanity was restored… almost.
Basic facts of life
On Thursday, John Swinney made a fool of himself when he refused to answer whether trans murderers in women’s prisons were men or women. He knew that telling the truth would jeopardise his government’s indefensible argument that a biologically male offender who ‘identifies’ as female should have the right to be incarcerated in a women’s prison.
If voters cannot trust a party leader to be honest about the most basic facts of life, what hope have they that a politician will be open about the state of the economy or public finances?
Forget the constitutional question, ignore for a moment the scandal of NHS waiting lists and failing schools. The real test for all party leaders as the election approaches is whether or not they can answer this question: is a male-born trans murderer a man or a woman?
For Anas Sawar, there is one more hurdle. He needs to remind voters that it was the Labour party who stood up for women when it introduced equal pay, equal opportunities, and in 2010 the Equality Act, and that Scottish Labour in 2026 has the policies that will improve the lives of a new generation of women. But first, he must say the hardest word for any politician – sorry.
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