Scots think 30% of criminals are sent to prison. They're way off
Scottish public opinion and evidence-based sentencing policies appear to be at odds
Amid record high levels of imprisonment in Scotland, the Scottish Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission published a report this month that was met with a backlash from some quarters about the country becoming “soft on crime”.
The commission recommended a presumption against sentences of less than two years and that those of under 12 months should be prohibited – except in exceptional circumstances – because short periods of imprisonment disrupt the lives of those serving them, affecting employment, housing, and family ties. Reconviction rates are also higher for individuals serving short sentences than those on community orders, while prison overcrowding disrupts daily operations, increases risks, and makes rehabilitation more difficult.
Yet, the public’s view of sentencing tells a different story. The recent publication of the Scottish Sentencing Council’s Public Perceptions of Sentencing survey highlighted a striking mismatch between perception and reality.
13% of convicted criminals end up in prison
Most Scots surveyed imagined the use of prison to be much more common than it actually is. On average, the public thought 30 in every 100 adults convicted of a crime in Scotland go to prison, when in fact the latest figures show that number is closer to 13.
Beyond the frequency of imprisonment, there were misconceptions about punishment severity. Nearly a third of respondents thought a life sentence meant a minimum of 25 years, while one in five believed it meant imprisonment for life.
According to the survey, 44 per cent of respondents felt that prison sentences of less than 12 months were more likely to reduce reoffending than a community sentence, despite evidence to the contrary. And, although imagining that the system is harsher than it is in reality, 60 per cent of respondents felt that sentencing in Scotland was either a little or much too lenient.
The survey also showed that Scots see prison as the most effective tool for protecting the public and punishing crime, while community sentences are viewed as better for rehabilitating offenders.
This suggests that public support for short prison sentences may be driven less by their actual impact on reoffending and more by the belief that prison is necessary to deliver justice and maintain public safety.
READ MORE: 'Excessive' overcrowding in Scottish prisons could lead to 'catastrophic failure', says prisons boss
A retreat from effective punishment
It is perhaps unsurprising then that some have described the recommendations made in the commission’s report as being ‘soft’ justice. On the one hand, the idea of restricting sentences of less than two years runs counter to the belief that short spells in prison work. If nearly half of Scots surveyed think this, a move to restrict such sentences can appear to be a retreat from effective punishment.
The irony is that public assumptions about punishment help shape this ‘soft on crime’ narrative. Many Scots see short custodial sentences as worthwhile, but overestimate how often prison is used and how severe some sentences are.
This combination of misconceptions may help explain the tension between public opinion and evidence-based sentencing policy. As long as the gap remains between the reality of sentencing and public perception, Scotland risks appearing soft on crime, even as evidence shows that short prison sentences and current measures upon release do little to reduce reoffending.
Kaigan Carrie is a criminologist and host of the Evolving Prisons podcast