Why Scotland is finally moving on from ten-year independence war

We can only speculate on how the anniversary would have been if voters on September 18, 2014, had answered Yes instead of No to the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” Perhaps there would have been a packed programme of celebrations led by President Alex Salmond in honour of the newly fledged nation’s Independence Day.

Both sides have their reasons for not wanting to dwell too much on the events of a decade ago. For some, the heady optimism of wish trees and foam fingers is in painful contrast with where the nationalist movement finds itself today, despite ten more years of SNP government. 

Misplaced euphoria

For others, memories of that time are dominated by unanswered questions in a debate that was polarising, toxic and often abusive. In the days leading up to the 18th, polling indicated Yes had taken a lead over No, inducing euphoria on the pro-independence side and alarm among their opponents.

Yes had the momentum, with supporters taking to the streets in their thousands, but thousands more kept their heads down and stayed at home. Scotland voted to stay in the UK by 55.3 per cent to 44.7 per cent on a turnout of 84.6 per cent. There was majority support for independence in just four of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas.

The momentum of the final days of the campaign made this defeat all the more crushing for Yes supporters. On the No side, the overwhelming emotion was relief rather than jubilation. It seemed that was what we were left with – bitter disappointment or almighty relief – until we could perhaps go through it all again a generation from now.

But a bounce in support for the SNP led many on the Yes side to believe the defeat was just a bump in the road towards inevitable secession from the UK. In late 2014, many Scots, including No voters, thought Scotland would become independent within ten years.

Nationalist surge

At times it was difficult to argue against this, particularly when the SNP won 56 out of the 59 seats in Scotland in the 2015 general election. The nationalists’ grip on power at Holyrood grew stronger than ever, and the deep wounds of 2014 were allowed to fester.

It was a bad omen for Scottish politics when Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon failed to attend a special service at St Giles’ Cathedral in Edinburgh aimed at healing divisions days after the referendum. The Scottish Government was represented instead by then Finance Secretary John Swinney and two SNP MSPs.

In contrast, around 20 unionist politicians turned up, including the leaders of all three opposition parties at Holyrood, Better Together chief Alistair Darling and Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael. Salmond had successfully taken the SNP from the fringes to the centre by broadening its appeal through demonstrating a degree of competence in office.

Johnson a nationalist recruiting sergeant

Critics argue that Sturgeon squandered much of that political capital by geeing up her party’s swollen ranks and preaching to the converted, rather than winning over “soft” No voters looking for assurances on issues like currency, pensions and the prospect of a hard border with England.

In doing so, she failed to take advantage of an extraordinarily favourable set of circumstances: Brexit, for which Scots did not vote; unpopular Tory governments, including in Boris Johnson a prime minister who could scarcely have been a more effective recruiting sergeant for the nationalist cause; and a public image, justified or not, of relative competence during the Covid pandemic.

The SNP regressed from a competent party of government back towards a protest movement. Sturgeon conceded she had “taken her eye off the ball” on Scotland’s appalling drug-deaths record, but there were many other such balls that went unnoticed as she and her colleagues fixated on one thing.

SNP facing defeat in 2026

To cement a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, Sturgeon entered into a coalition agreement with the Scottish Greens in 2021, signing her party up to a wildly unpopular, radical-left agenda. That contributed to her political downfall last year. 

SNP fortunes were further damaged by the ongoing police investigation into the party’s finances. Sturgeon’s short-lived chosen successor, Humza “continuity” Yousaf, failed to turn things around, as did the coronation of Swinney.

Labour’s landslide general election victory in July has seen the SNP reduced to nine MPs and deprived them of a gift that had kept on giving for years – a Tory government unpopular in Scotland. After nearly 20 years in power, it is quite possible the electorate will put the SNP out of its misery in 2026 and vote them out of office.

And so the independence that many in 2014 thought so likely within a decade now seems more distant than ever. It is hard to escape the conclusion that, from a nationalist point of view, the past ten years have been a missed opportunity. A second referendum now truly does feel like a generation away – starting from now rather than 2014.

In that time, perhaps we can learn some valuable lessons from the first time around for if and when there is a second referendum. But for now, and for different reasons, Yes and No supporters can both be forgiven for not wanting to dwell too much on the past. 

There is much in Scotland that needs fixing, and the SNP could use some time out of office to reset. For many, 2014 is fading from memory like a blissful dream; for others it is being gratefully forgotten like a vivid nightmare. It feels like time to move on. Perhaps this is as close as anything to an approximation of the mood of the nation.