Reflections on populism, as Tory political black hole puts democracy at risk

The Hamilton by-election produced a Labour victory. The SNP identified the wrong opponent and lost. The Tories just collapsed. The Reform Party though, confirmed the danger that they pose to our country courtesy of an electoral system built for another age and a political black hole created by 14 years of a soulless and reckless Tory Government.

Hidden from public view until polling day in Scotland, populism, a seemingly innocuous term and very much of English origin, via UKIP and the Brexit party, has now emerged as a frightening reminder of a political idea which is now tearing America apart and overwhelming any idea of democracy and justice. The Scottish by-election and the recent elections in England should be a wake up call for the traditional or progressive parties in the UK who are in need themselves of “reform” based on a deeper understanding of a changing electorate.

The political black hole left by the last Tory Government, reflects their running of Britain into the ground, souring the mood of electors and paving the way for populism to take hold.

What is crucial, is not just the austerity, national decline, diminishing expectations, economic stagnation and the savaging of the public realm , but the erosion of trust and respect for politics resulting in a bitter, angry, insecure electorate exhibiting all the signs of low mood, a negative psyche, and a political Zeitgeist requiring a new spirit for a new age refurbishing our beliefs, attitudes, feelings and values, a new driving force reflecting new concerns and aspirations of a different future. This is vital if we are to deal with the much more frightening and damaging legacy.

Rachel Reeves successfully used the term, financial black hole to fix in the minds of electors the extent of the financial carnage facing the new Government. Progressives now need to use and understand the term, “political black hole” if we are to confront the crisis in our politics, and the stress being imposed upon our democracy.

Sounds alarmist but there is evidence everywhere of complacency and the familiar refrain of “it couldn’t happen here” despite populism and authoritarianism finding expression today in the form of American troops on the streets of Los Angeles. We need a vision of the future that inspires and offers solutions to our more intractable problems and restores trust in our politics and politicians. Any sense of alienation can find a home in Populist parties. For progressive parties, a period of reflection would make more sense than being tempted to drift to the right and compete with the divisive ideas of the Reform Party.

The “scunner” factor is creating doubts about the relevance of our traditional politics to the daily lives of electors. Entertaining the idea of a cult leader should be deeply offensive to supporters of democracy. Deep seams of discontent could be easily mined, by Farage who is the consummate opportunist, a predator circling for political prey.

There are however other issues which may more reliably explain our vulnerable democracy and the ramshackle nature of our electoral system. Evidence abounds of an ancient electoral system not fit for modern day purposes and an electorate weary and dissatisfied with political outcomes.

Too often we cast electors in a series of political dramas but they feel sidelined in what should be about them and at times feeling more like the victims of politics not the beneficiaries. Policies often lack stories or messaging or relevance of where people fit in? The discourse at Westminster is often perceived as too complex, technocratic, managerial, London centric, and lost in complex issues such as AI, Growth, Gender and GDP where a lack of inclusive or illustrative narratives are alienating people. Westminster is making few concessions to the idea of four nation politics. And we still live in an over centralised Union. The missteps by the Government in its early stages undoubtedly undermined the Labour Party creed and

brand.

There are however deep seated long term issues that must be addressed, in particular the voting system. The “First past the Post,” method of electing MPs is antiquated and undemocratic and could be a dangerous entry vehicle for populists. In July 2024, the Labour government was elected with a landslide of 412 MPs out of the total number of 650 MPs in the House of Commons. But this was achieved with only 9.7 million votes out of a total of 48 million people in the UK registered and eligible to vote.

Labour gained 20 per cent of the total eligible vote and 30 percent of those who did vote: this means that nearly 40 million people didn’t vote Labour or didn’t bother to vote! Reform won 5 seats, with over 4 million votes the Conservative party with nearly 7 million votes won 121 seats. Our electoral process can deliver a huge majority of seats in the House of Commons on the back of a minority of voters in the country. None of this makes sense and remains a key issue in our weakening democracy.

Westminster represents constituencies but doesn’t reflect the people. It provides a reminder of what a party like Reform could achieve, with a deeply divided country, the collapse of

Tory party and a fragile and less trusting electorate. This is why progressive parties must build consensus politics.

Turnout also matters. The 2024 Westminster election turnout of 59.4 was the second lowest since 1918. A record high of 83.9% was achieved in 1950.

The Scottish Parliament by-election in Hamilton had a turnout of 44.2 percent of those eligible to vote. For some this was a decent outcome but surely after an intensely fought campaign, a figure of nearly 60 percent not bothering to vote is an indictment of a failed voting and political system and ultimately our democracy.

Our electoral system favours the two main parties. What is happening in Europe requires a wake up call to recognise that populism inevitably leads to authoritarianism, and a threat to

democracy. America today may be on the edge of serious civil unrest. Encouraging and exercising the right to vote is our defence against populism and ultranationalism and should be a more important priority than the endless feuding between progressive parties. In a Liberal democracy rebuilding our trust in politics demands active citizens not passive recipients.