Keir Starmer's last big decision could be a catastrophic mistake
The £15 billion in extra defence spending announced by Keir Starmer looks inadequate in the face of dire warnings about war with Russia by 2030
In John Healey’s letter of resignation as Defence Secretary to Keir Starmer, he pointed out that the Prime Minister had said only recently that “it is our intelligence assessment, and the assessment of other countries in Nato, that there could be an attack by Russia on Nato as soon as 2030”.
Healey quit after being offered £13.5 billion extra in defence spending, less than half the £28bn reportedly requested by the military. While the sum has been increased to £15bn – almost certainly because of his principled stand – Healey was unimpressed saying “Britain will still be spending just 2.7 per cent of GDP [on defence] in 2030”.
Underlining that this is not a party political issue, Tan Dhesi, the Labour chair of the Commons Defence Committee, expressed disappointment and said “given the rising threat level... the UK needs to properly invest in our defence”.
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US won’t come to our defence
It basically comes down to a question of judgment about the prospect of a major war with a militarised state run by an evil tyrant in four short years.
Starmer appeared to take the threat seriously, saying: “When the world is arming and aggression is rising, the best way to avoid war is to prepare for it. The best way to defend is to deter, to have the strength to make your adversaries think again before they act.”
Asked if he could say that the extra money would be enough to deter a Russian attack or fight if necessary by 2030, he replied: “Yes, I can.” This would be more convincing if there were more senior military figures who agreed with him.
General Sir Richard Barrons, who co-wrote the UK government’s strategic defence review, spoke for many when he told BBC radio: “We’re not keeping up with our allies, we’re certainly not keeping up with our enemies, and we know that the US is no longer going to come and save European security in the face of a Russian threat.”
This is likely to be Starmer’s last big decision as Prime Minister. It’s difficult to escape the sense that it really could be a mistake of historic and catastrophic proportions.
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