Keir Starmer should heed this warning from recent history as he prepares for record-breaking election win

Now Labour prepares for a record-breaking night of a different kind, likely inflicting the worst-ever defeat on the Tories, an outcome even the most full-throated Conservative supporters are struggling to refute.

Just how the fortunes changed for the Conservatives in such a short space of time is remarkable, but there are warning signs which Sir Keir Starmer should heed if he wants a long and successful premiership. The problem with Boris Johnson’s landslide was that it was so shallow.

The objective of preventing Corbyn getting the keys to Number 10 was achieved immediately, and the Brexit element – whether you agree with the policy or not – was unquestionably “done” in that the UK officially withdrew from the EU a year later.

Nothing can save them

That presented a conundrum for the Conservatives which they didn’t address: why should people vote for us now our two main commitments have been ticked off? They fell victim to chronic complacency, meaning by the time ‘Partygate’ was revealed, Brits were in no mood for leniency.

A few months after those lockdown controversies were exposed, a retired Scottish Conservative MSP popped his head into an office I was working in. Thumping the table with two downward fists, he declared: “Normal people only think hard about politics once or twice a year. If this is one of those times – and it will be – nothing anybody does from now on can save them.”

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He was right. The meltdown started under Johnson and was made worse during Liz Truss’ cataclysmic one-month leadership – a period so farcical I sometimes have to Google it to ensure it really did happen. By the time Rishi Sunak came in, there was nothing he could possibly do to turn the tide, though to make matters worse his own campaign has been lunatically shambolic.

Voters’ backing may be fickle

But all this in itself may pose a middle-to-long term stumbling block for Labour. Are people going to vote for them en masse because they like what they hear in terms of policy, strategy and ambition? Or are they voting to get rid of the Tories?

I suspect, unlike the buoyant Blair and Brown campaign of 1997, it is the latter. A magnificent tactic for now, but one which will be out-of-date by this time tomorrow. Voters won’t be slow in asking: “You sent the Tories packing, now what?”

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There has been a narrative, echoed by warnings from senior figures in the Conservatives, that a bad loss today will see the party booted into the long grass for a generation. But this need not be so.

Just as the 2019 Conservative vote was fickle, so too might today’s be for Labour. Unless Sir Keir can firmly deliver in terms of cost-of-living, public services and the economy, these millions of people will very happily turn away five years hence.

That, of course, depends on the Tories themselves not losing the head. There will be temptation among the ranks to veer off to the right, especially with Labour successfully moving in on the centre-ground and Nigel Farage floating along like a scheming alligator on the right flank, his beady eyes poking just above the surface.

That must be resisted. It didn’t work for Labour doing the equivalent lurch to the left under Corbyn, and will leave the party appealing only to around ten to 20 per cent of the electorate. They need to follow the course of action taken by Starmer and his team. Identify what went wrong, kick out the imbeciles and figure out how to be attractive to the 40 to 50 per cent required to win a Westminster vote.

A new Holyrood environment

Today’s anticipated Labour landslide will also have consequences for Scotland. Scottish Labour will be ecstatic, shamelessly so, about sending dozens of new MPs down to the Commons, especially if they are found to have beaten the SNP either in vote share or seats. But that in itself will create a new environment for Holyrood.

For Labour MSPs, they will find themselves in the same position the Tories have occupied for the last 14 years – defending the sometimes-uncomfortable record of the UK Government, on everything from the Israel-Hamas conflict and immigration levels to welfare reform.

The SNP will have a new headache too. The “evil Tory government” rhetoric upon which it has relied for so long will lose its cut-through; a new crib sheet will be required.

And for the Scottish Conservatives, who face an interregnum, tonight’s change will have ramifications. Irrespective of how well the Scottish Tory candidates fare, they should remember they are still firmly the second-largest party in Holyrood. Being free of UK Government shackles could present some opportunities for a new, more positive direction.

It may feel far away, but by the time MSPs return from summer recess there will be barely 18 months until the Holyrood 2026 campaign. That is not a lot of time for ducks to be assembled in effective and orderly rows. But it can be done, as recent Westminster experience shows.

As the 2019 election result unfolded, senior Labour figure Chris Bryant bemoaned the “worst night for Labour since 1935”. “My real fear now is if we don’t do the soul-searching we did after the 1992 election, we could be in the wilderness for even longer,” he lamented on live television.

Fast-forward five years, soul-searching complete and ego repaired, Mr Bryant and his colleagues prepare to move into Downing Street. So, things can be overhauled quickly and successfully, something that should hearten a bedraggled Tory party. It should also serve as a warning against complacency for Labour in government, no matter how many records it breaks overnight.

Adam Morris is former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives