Why John Swinney would regret letting Green tail wag SNP dog to avoid Budget crisis

Given the nationalists’ recent general election drubbing and the Holyrood election looming on the horizon, the other opposition parties will be especially reluctant to do anything to prop up John Swinney’s administration. Instead, their goal must be to amplify the opposite message: that the SNP can no longer be trusted to run Scotland’s affairs.

Therefore, unless the First Minister makes an offer the Liberal Democrats cannot refuse, that basically leaves the Greens or a Budget crisis that could precipitate an election.

Greens’ red lines

One might expect a party with seven MSPs to be realistic about what measures it could demand from a government with 62. However, ahead of the Scottish Greens’ conference, there has been much talk about its ‘red lines’.

Many would doubtless agree that councils should be better funded, although this may not be possible given the Scottish Government’s current troubles. However, the Greens’ call for a ‘mansion tax’ represents its hard-left instinct to impose seemingly ever-increasing taxes on wealthy people without regard to the wider economic effects.

In an interview with The Scotsman, co-leader Patrick Harvie criticised the First Minister for appointing Kate Forbes as his deputy, saying she held “extreme social conservative positions as well as some fairly clear conservative economic positions”.

A sign of weakness

He suggested Green backing for the Budget was dependant on whether the SNP would continue with aspects of the two parties’ coalition deal, abandoned earlier this year. Harvie also warned against expanding road capacity on routes such as the A9 or A96 and watering down a planned ban on conversion therapy.

Of course, the SNP might not need to meet every Green demand to win their support in the Budget vote. It will all come down to the negotiations. But John Swinney must have the courage to walk away and go to the country if necessary. Allowing the Green tail to wag the SNP dog would be a sign of weakness that voters would be sure to punish eventually.