If the next general election is a Brexit re-run Labour will lose

No matter who the Labour leader is at that time, If Labour makes such a proposal it shall suffer a humiliating defeat that shall consign it to the dustbin of history. The reason for this is quite simple, the British people, while dissatisfied in some regards with the Brexit outcomes our politicians delivered, are not attracted to the prospect of giving away control of our country’s future and being made to pay huge sums for the privilege.

I am not making this analysis up; it is not some wishful thinking from a British sovereigntist who will argue about the benefits and unexploited opportunities of Brexit at any opportunity. The reason I believe this is how a rematch of the EU referendum will play out is that I have followed the attitude surveys over recent years and this is the outcome they always point to.

I do not believe the political future is inevitable. The British people have agency and the majority position can always change, but the trend is consistent. You will read many headlines of polls that say the UK would rejoin the EU if there is a referendum now. While that could be said to be literally true there will be no referendum held tomorrow, next week or even next year.

A referendum does not take place in a vacuum where there is no debate. For all its faults, Britain remains an open democracy and there will be a campaign for remaining outside of the EU and another for rejoining. The “rejoin” campaign will need to lay out the terms of how we will make our laws, what democratic processes we shall give up and all the changes that shall entail.

These will become clearer to the British people as more of the detail is revealed and I believe the realities of handing over decision making and power to unelected bureaucrats and seeing those decisions confirmed by a majority of other countries against our own interests will curb any enthusiasm for being inside the EU. My expectation of such a corrosion of EU support is based on the reality of how the UK’s interests were regularly suborned during our time inside the EU and how badly any likely EU “deal” will play out.

It is also supported by polling that shows any romantic notions of rejoining the EU do not survive first contact with political realities. For nearly two years there has been polling conducted by supporters of UK membership of the EU that has shown a majority for re-entry. Needless to say the headlines report this and a sense of inevitability about rejoining is encouraged.

Unfortunately for the protagonists such polling has more than that simple question, it also goes on to ask about attitudes to EU membership under certain circumstances. As soon as the question is asked alongside the requirement to adopt the Euro as the British currency the position switches and there is a majority against membership.

Polling by Omnisis under the brand “WeThink” reported in the Byline Times showed public support for joining the EU reversed every time the Euro was included.

Such is their hunger for the UK taxpayer’s money, the willy EU autocrats would offer some concessions about the timetable for joining the Euro, but the principle would not be conceded. Furthermore, the principle of freedom of movement, of open borders through membership of the Schengen (which we were not part of previously) would be insisted upon too. These would chip off further significant chunks of support.

Then there is the cost and it would be a full annual cost with no rebate such as that negotiated by Margaret Thatcher that applied for nearly 40 years of UK membership. On the current spending budget of the EU and using the previous formulae for estimating the membership costs the annual bill would be between £28-34 billion every year. For that money, at a time when the security of the country is clearly under threat we would be better equipping and paying our services better to strengthen our security.

With such hurdles to overcome it is therefore no surprise that polls published in the Observer and Sunday Telegraph at the weekend showed a majority in opposition to EU membership once the likely terms are explained.

In the Observer on all eight occasions that Opinium asked the question of how close the UK should be to the EU, the majority of the UK wished to remain outside of the EU (54 per cent against joining to 33 per cent for, 3 June2026). The results are remarkably consistent over time, showing that while we may disagree on the relative proximity of the UK/EU relationship, a majority always agrees the UK should not be a member of the EU.

In the Sunday Telegraph a poll conducted for Britain Unbound found that only 27 per cent of people would be willing to accept less power over rules and laws that apply in the UK, as a condition for greater access to the EU Single Market. This result held true across every GB nation, every aggregate region of England, every education level, every household income level and every work type.

The path ahead is clear; if Labour decides to adopt EU membership as a position it will be committing political suicide, no matter who leads it. Bring it on.

Brian Monteith is a former member of the Scottish and European parliaments and a member of Britain Unbound’s Advisory Council