How we must prepare Scottish farming for a hotter world

We must not view the summer of 2026 as an isolated event

If anyone still had any doubt about why scientists have spent decades now telling us we need to cut emissions and adapt to climate change, then the summer of 2026 has surely made all of us sit up and take notice.

Across Europe, we have seen record-breaking temperatures, prolonged droughts, and widespread wildfires that have resulted in significant human, economic and environmental costs. The seemingly never-ending heatwaves have shown us that no-one is immune to the wider implications and disruptions that our warming planet brings. According to provisional data from the Met Office, summer 2026 was the UK’s hottest on record. In June, July and August, the average mean temperature – which includes day and night – was as high as 16.5C. There were 40 days where temperatures exceeded 30C (86F).

Nationally, the UK provisionally had its third driest July on record with only 35 per cent of average rainfall. Meanwhile, an estimated 24,835 hectares had burned across 77 wildfires in the UK, graphically highlighting how climate-related risks are becoming more widespread. Agriculture remains one of the sectors most exposed to climate change, with higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and more frequent weather extremes impacting production.

Across the UK this summer, harvest occurred earlier, many spring-sown crops experienced heat stress, and water levels declined rapidly. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s harvest reports suggested cereal yields were below the historic averages, shaped by limited rainfall, although outlook varied considerably by crop, soil type and location.

Across the Channel, France had its smallest maize harvest in half a century, while major European rivers including the Rhine and Danube experienced exceptionally low flows, disrupting irrigation, power supplies and transportation. This all added pressure to food prices, already under strain due to conflict around the world disrupting key supply routes.

On top of existing climate extremes, a potentially record-breaking El Niño is forecast to again make next year one of the hottest on record with varying impacts across the world. This could intensify drought in already vulnerable regions, worsening food insecurity for hundreds of millions of people, according to the UN World Food Programme – and potentially pushing the world’s climate crisis into ‘uncharted territory’.

The impacts of extreme weather extend well beyond the farm gate. June’s heatwaves alone are estimated to have cost the UK economy more than £1.15 billion, resulting in approximately 24 million lost working hours, according to research by Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE and the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC).

In agriculture, temperatures can reduce labour productivity, shorten working days and increase health risks for workers. Around half of the UK’s food is also imported, leaving consumers exposed to climate impacts affecting agricultural regions across the world that can quickly translate into food price volatility and supply shortages.

We know farmers and crofters have adapted to all of these challenges well. However, with financial pressures, global insecurity and climate variability increasing, investment in more resilient farming systems is ever more important. Building resilience is now just as crucial as reducing emissions. Preparing for a hotter world is not solely about managing risk. Those businesses already investing in resilient supply chains, sustainable sourcing and collaborative partnerships are likely to be better positioned for the future.

Building climate resilience also requires long-term investment and planning, with adaptation embedded in every decision. It must be fair and equitable, placing people at the centre of the solution. That fairness also means acting now, before the impacts become more severe, costly - and difficult to reverse.

Areas that can help farms adapt include diversified rotations, improved water management, nature-based solutions, climate-resilient crop varieties and regenerative agriculture delivering wider benefits for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, productivity and long-term business resilience.

The Scottish Government’s Academic Advisory Panel recommends a whole-farm approach to climate adaptation, combining practical measures suited to local conditions and individual businesses, backed by farmer led knowledge and experience.

Adaptation is already well underway, from utilising the latest research and technology to nature friendly farming and finding ways to diversify income that can boost resilience to supply chain shocks and extreme events.

On arable farms, this might include improved varieties for already familiar crops that can cope with warmer temperatures, more frequent droughts, heavier rainfall and changing pest and disease pressures, or adapting cultivation methods and varying rotations to spread risk and access new markets.

In livestock systems, grazing management is evolving, with more diverse swards helping to improve pasture resilience and benefit soil health. Many land managers are recognising the multiple benefits hedgerows and trees can bring, providing useful shelterbelts from extreme weather with additional nature and carbon benefits. There are also potential future opportunities to grow or trial more novel crops traditionally suited to warmer regions which are likely to experience much more intense climate change than here.

There are a number of artisan tea producers in Scotland, while traditional tea producing regions such as Kenya, have experience a difficult year due to climate related disruption, impacting yield and quality. Hemp is making a resurgence, while England and Wales are seeing an expanding wine industry, with climate shifts and terroir – or wine growing environment - in the south of England being comparable to Champagne, France.

We must not view the summer of 2026 as an isolated event. Instead, what it has done is offer us a glimpse of the operating conditions that agriculture and the food sector are likely to encounter more frequently from now on. Businesses that act now will be better placed not only to manage future risks, but to build stronger, more resilient food systems for what will become a hotter world.

Iain Boyd, Senior Consultant, SAC Consulting (part of SRUC)